tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post114109431293291185..comments2023-11-05T04:36:14.223-08:00Comments on The Mess That Greenspan Made: Income, Wealth, and DebtTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1141241781629681882006-03-01T11:36:00.000-08:002006-03-01T11:36:00.000-08:00Great summary view and must read. Enjoy.http://ww...Great summary view and must read. Enjoy.<BR/><BR/>http://www.weedenco.com/welling/Downloads/2006/0804welling022106.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1141143527412185362006-02-28T08:18:00.000-08:002006-02-28T08:18:00.000-08:00Since you are based in SoCal and have provided spe...Since you are based in SoCal and have provided special insight to that region, let me report on some data from my home region, the Northern Virginia area:<BR/><BR/> http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=7250308<BR/><BR/>This pair of charts paints a forboding picture for the next year or two southways of the greater Washington metro area.<BR/><BR/>I had previously thought this area would be insulated, given the government (homeland security) buildup. Some 250,000 engineering jobs have been sucked into the area in the last 5 years, if I recall correctly. This doesn't even include other professions, so you can get an idea of the effect on real estate.<BR/><BR/>But this thesis failed to take into account that government buildup can only go so far so fast, and inevitably screeches to a halt (indeed, it usually rebounds from its most massive surges as the political winds shift). With the size of government in the DC area plateauing, in fact, the logical conclusion is that the market there should face a more precipitous deflation than the usual locale.<BR/><BR/>This is because a large portion of the "boom" was in fact due to influx, not just speculation. With the influx stopping and the speculation stopping at the same time, the downslope in real estate metrics should be steep.<BR/><BR/>Someone close to me put themselves half a million dollars on the line in speculative real estate, at the peak of NoVA's bubble, and remain exposed.<BR/><BR/>They hadn't consulted me first.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com