tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post1771399517238517419..comments2023-11-05T04:36:14.223-08:00Comments on The Mess That Greenspan Made: More on the fourth quarter job lossesTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-33220403286980841202009-01-21T06:38:00.000-08:002009-01-21T06:38:00.000-08:00Everyone is expecting recession getting over soon....Everyone is expecting recession getting over soon. I have a very close friend, who graduated from Harvard. Worked for ML for over 8 years, recently he’s been “right sized” too, despite of his outstanding performance and the increasing revenue he generated. OMG, now the banking industry is badly hurt, how long it would take for those financial background guys like him get back to the job market. Banking jobs are not there as much as before as easily seen on http://www.joboutlets.com and other job sites in the regionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-13128411265942710222009-01-11T16:59:00.000-08:002009-01-11T16:59:00.000-08:00i just heard reports of unusual seismic activity i...i just heard reports of unusual seismic activity in northern WyomingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-23756585899117482452009-01-11T08:53:00.000-08:002009-01-11T08:53:00.000-08:00it won't be middling any moreListen, anything is p...<I>it won't be middling any more</I><BR/><BR/>Listen, anything is possible. It is possible that the <A HREF="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jD9TgpkYUFJGpF8a23g-uBWMSpLAD95JO7BO2" REL="nofollow">Yellowstone</A> cauldera could blow tomorrow. However, it is not the possibility but the probability with a 95% confidence level that matters.<BR/><BR/>A 2 quarter horizon is not likely to take out the 1981 recession net nonfarm payroll loss at the 16th month with Obamanomics on patrol.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps Tim could plot the post-war recession net percentage employment loss (<I>spaghetti-style</I>) like he does with the Case-Shiller index.<BR/><BR/>I belong to the doom-and-gloom crowd as well. Nevertheless, data trumps opinion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-71270650475944709102009-01-10T12:10:00.000-08:002009-01-10T12:10:00.000-08:00if the next 3-6 months are anything like the last ...if the next 3-6 months are anything like the last 3 months, it won't be middling any more......Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-85257677826542550922009-01-10T11:27:00.000-08:002009-01-10T11:27:00.000-08:00You can find the cumulative decline in nonfarm pay...You can find the cumulative decline in nonfarm payroll employment in percentage terms for the 11 post-war recessions <A HREF="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/data/historical_recessions_data_01_09_2009.xls" REL="nofollow">here</A>.<BR/><BR/>Thus far the 2007 recession is middling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-182587805891317162009-01-09T11:36:00.000-08:002009-01-09T11:36:00.000-08:00This might interest you, Tim. From the Telegraph i...This might interest you, Tim. From the Telegraph in the UK:<BR/><BR/>"Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety"<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/7y5z89domushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12219518832803471294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1202200004409308902009-01-09T11:29:00.000-08:002009-01-09T11:29:00.000-08:00In fact, if the government still figured that stat...In fact, if the government still figured that statistic as it did before the manipulations of Reagan and Clinton, it would be more than 16%, as economist John Williams shows.<BR/><BR/>http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/024777.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com