tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post5564310083088989102..comments2023-11-05T04:36:14.223-08:00Comments on The Mess That Greenspan Made: Greenspan recession probability update alert!Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-64727938506662493582008-04-07T11:04:00.000-07:002008-04-07T11:04:00.000-07:00Exactly how does Greenspan reckon 50%?To calculat...Exactly how does Greenspan reckon 50%?<BR/><BR/>To calculate a probability, you must know all of the potential outcomes (states).<BR/><BR/>Al Greenspan is not omniscient. <BR/><BR/>He has no way of knowing what will become of the billions of open transactions in the U.S. -- who will earn cash to pay their debts, who will default.<BR/><BR/>It's impossible to predict outcomes -- give probability -- for any future state of an Open System.<BR/><BR/>Yet, idiots often do this as they try to make themselves sound smarter than they are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-79883787119808389122008-04-07T06:05:00.000-07:002008-04-07T06:05:00.000-07:00On Saturday I attended a foreclosure home auction ...On Saturday I attended a foreclosure home auction run by the Real Estate Disposition Corp. (REDC). I stayed long enough to observe the disposition of 49 of the more than 100 properties auctioned off. The average sales price was $129,000. The average "previously valued to" number was $234,000. This was a 45% haircut. <BR/><BR/>I didn't inspect any of the properties, but afterwards drove by several higher priced condos in Clearwater Beach that had been auctioned off. They were very nicely situated with water views and the building was only 2 years old. If you drive up and down Gulf Blvd. you'll find numerous condos still being constructed. <BR/><BR/>It looks like we've only seen the beginnings of the price declines yet to come.stocksystmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15585696725702649951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-56969144268225639212008-04-06T22:33:00.000-07:002008-04-06T22:33:00.000-07:00I read the Greenspan FT article as well over at Pr...I read the Greenspan FT article as well over at PrudentBear. The way Greenspan tells it, central banks are so utterly powerless that they might as well not exist at all. Yet somehow I doubt he subscribes to the Ron Paul viewpoint that the Fed should be abolished.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-47029323513445861862008-04-06T21:58:00.000-07:002008-04-06T21:58:00.000-07:00Hey Tim, have a look at Greenspan's Op-Ed in Monda...Hey Tim, have a look at Greenspan's Op-Ed in Monday's FT! <BR/><BR/>The title: The Fed is Blameless on the Property Bubble<BR/><BR/>Spoiler alert: He doesn't admit any culpability.Dan Tyranthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560222316594421612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-82537758488918070982008-04-06T19:13:00.000-07:002008-04-06T19:13:00.000-07:00tim, surely you realize that you're only adding to...tim, surely you realize that you're only adding to the problem about which you complain .. this seems self serving and highly appropriate...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-12775324774412130822008-04-06T18:26:00.000-07:002008-04-06T18:26:00.000-07:00Greenspand endorsed Mccain!Greenspand endorsed Mccain!Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169148764438565562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-23149787836675731172008-04-06T17:56:00.000-07:002008-04-06T17:56:00.000-07:00Why do people still care what he thinks? Although ...Why do people still care what he thinks? Although in this case he is actually correct, 100% is larger than 50%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-57989582176142874272008-04-06T14:59:00.000-07:002008-04-06T14:59:00.000-07:00Rather than asking Greenspan questions about the g...Rather than asking Greenspan questions about the global economy and paying his astronomical speaking fee for the privelege of hearing the sound of his voice, I propose a viable alternative: a cheap, plastic Magic 8 Ball. Besides being more cost effective, I think the 8 Ball is just as accurate in its predictions. Here, I'll demonstrate:<BR/><BR/>Me: Is the US currently in a recession?<BR/><BR/>M8B: As I see it, yes<BR/><BR/>Me: Is Spain's real estate bubble larger than America's?<BR/><BR/>M8B: Better not tell you now<BR/><BR/><BR/>In this case, even though the 8 Ball ducked the Spain question, it appears to be clearer and more accurate on the US economy than Greenspan. Even better, I just saved $150,000. Feeling good about the 8 Ball, I decided to ask one more question:<BR/><BR/>Me: Is Greenspan primarily to blame for the current US economic troubles?<BR/><BR/>M8B: It is decidedly so<BR/><BR/><BR/>The Magic 8 Ball speaks the truth!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com