Lots of Buying Today - Not Just iPods

Put down those Turkey leftovers and get a load of the dollar and commodities early this Friday morning. Peter Brimelow's headline for a Wednesday story at CBS Marketwatch has so far proved prescient, as overseas trading has had a decidedly anti-dollar feel.

Friday will be historic day for gold
Commentary: First time CBOT contract is open when Comex is closed
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:39 PM ET Nov 22, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Is he or isn't he? The Gartman Letter's Dennis Gartman is seen so frequently in the media as to resemble a hot newsletter at its sizzlingest. His media distribution circuit (not including me) is similar. But the price is not: over $6,000 a year, I am told.

For gold bugs, the question is the same, but different: How come this vociferous negativist on the role of gold seems in fact to have been about the best trader of the recent gold rally? Including going long virtually at the bottom in early October below $580. And in fact has probably been the most prone to use gold over the past couple of (dramatically positive) years.

The question is particularly critical because Gartman bought more gold (a fourth "position") on the opening Wednesday morning. For a while, as gold surged by more than $6, this looked like a genius call. Eventually, gold corrected and finished up only 30 cents.

But of course the party is not over.

Friday, in fact, will be a historic day: It will be the first occasion on which the Chicago Board of Trade gold contract is open when the Comex division of Nymex is closed. The CBOT contract became a serious competitor to New York's within the last year.

The Chicago contract outflanked New York by going electronic. In commodities courses at Stanford Business School a million years ago I was taught an entrenched futures markets could not be displaced. They reckoned without the computer.

This means that Friday could actually be an interesting day for gold in America. If speculators wish, they can make a statement.

A key Gartman motivation was that the dollar looked likely to break. This in fact happened. As Richard Russell wrote Wednesday evening, "the Dollar Index plunging below its lower trendline was the most significant move of today. I'll be watching this whole picture carefully on Friday."

So far, so good:
All this activity seems to have made the Bloomberg Commodity Futures page go bonkers.

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Gobble! Gobble!

Online references Wikipedia and About.com are once again the source of some interesting information about one of America's favorite holidays. The lengthy "Thanksgiving Proclamation" by Abraham Lincoln in 1863, about halfway down on Wikipedia's Thanksgiving page, is particularly intriguing, in light of today's ongoing national cultural debates.

Historical Highlights from Wikipedia

"George Washington, leader of the revolutionary forces in the American Revolutionary War, proclaimed a Thanksgiving in December 1777 as a victory celebration honoring the defeat of the British at Saratoga. The Continental Congress proclaimed annual December Thanksgivings from 1777 to 1783, except in 1782.

In the middle of the Civil War, prompted by a series of editorials written by Sarah Josepha Hale, the last of which appeared in the September 1863 issue of Godey's Lady's Book, President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed a national Thanksgiving Day, to be celebrated on the final Thursday in November 1863.


In 1939, President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared that Thanksgiving would be the next to last Thursday of November rather than the last. With the country still in the midst of The Great Depression, Roosevelt thought this would give merchants a longer period to sell goods before Christmas. Increasing profits and spending during this period, Roosevelt hoped, would aid bringing the country out of the Depression.

At the time, it was considered inappropriate to advertise goods for Christmas until after Thanksgiving. However, Roosevelt's declaration was not mandatory; twenty-three states went along with this recommendation, and 22 did not. Other states, like Texas, could not decide and took both weeks as government holidays. Roosevelt persisted in 1940 to celebrate his "Franksgiving," as it was termed. The U.S. Congress in 1941 split the difference and established that the Thanksgiving would occur annually on the fourth Thursday of November, which was sometimes the last Thursday and sometimes the next to last. On November 26 that year President Roosevelt signed this bill into U.S. law.

Since 1947, or possibly earlier, the National Turkey Federation has presented the President of the United States with one live turkey and two dressed turkeys. The live turkey is pardoned and lives out the rest of its days on a peaceful farm. While it is commonly held that this tradition began with Harry Truman in 1947, the Truman Library has been unable to find any evidence for this. Still others claim that that the tradition dates back to Abraham Lincoln pardoning his son's pet turkey. Both stories have been quoted in more recent presidential speeches."

Trivia from About.com

From the Chicago site:

"According to most historians, the Pilgrims never observed an annual Thanksgiving feast in autumn. In the year 1621, they did celebrate a feast near Plymouth, Massachusetts, following their first harvest. But this feast most people refer to as the first Thanksgiving was never repeated. Oddly enough, most devoutly religious pilgrims observed a day of thanksgiving with prayer and fasting, not feasting.

In the United States, Thanksgiving Day is celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November. But did you know that seven other nations also celebrate an official Thanksgiving Day? Those nations are Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Korea, Liberia, and Switzerland."

From the Holidays site:

Q. How long did the first Thanksgiving celebration last?
A. It lasted three days (the celebration consisted of games as well as food).

Q. Who wanted to make the turkey the national bird of the United States of America?
A. Benjamin Franklin, but he was opposed by Thomas Jefferson. Legend has it that Franklin then named the male turkey a "tom turkey" to spite Jefferson. (The female is called a "hen turkey" and the baby a "poult.")

Q. What drink did the Puritans bring with them in the Mayflower?
A. Beer.

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Go Rovers!

My hometown high school football team will be playing their cross-river rival tomorrow morning for the 100th time. The Easton (PA) Red Rovers will play the Phillipsburg (NJ) Sateliners tomorrow morning and the game will be broadcast live on ESPN2 starting at 6AM PST (9AM EST).

Apparently this is quite an event in the area, especially after this story in today's USAToday.

The Easton Red Rovers and Phillipsburg (N.J.) Stateliners will play football for the 100th time Thanksgiving morning. The outcome will determine the mood for turkey dinner — and bragging rights for the rest of the seniors' lives.

The high schools represent old mill towns separated by a river and a rivalry. One is spanned by bridges, the other by generations.

"We're blue-collar cities with the same values and traditions," Easton coach Steve Shiffert says. "If not for the Delaware River, we'd be the same place."

"We're like one big city in two separate states," Phillipsburg coach Bob Stem says. "You want to win so bad because you have to live with these people."

And, in many cases, sleep with them. Stem is P-burg '58. His wife, Janice, is Easton '56. "Bob is the reason we lost my senior year," she says of the 1955 game, when Stem blocked an extra point in a 7-6 Phillipsburg win. "He made me cry."

The centenary game is making news beyond the Lehigh Valley: It airs on ESPN2 at 9 a.m. ET Thursday, one of hundreds of traditional high school games played across the USA on Thanksgiving, mainly in the Northeast. There are fewer of these turkey bowls played than years ago. Many rivalries have been moved off the day so as not to interfere with state playoffs, according to Bob Kanaby, executive director of the National Association of State High School Associations.

Easton and Phillipsburg officials say they'll never move their game. "It's who we are," Shiffert says. The game interrupts playoffs for both — and it's worse for Easton:

•Phillipsburg (10-0) is shooting for consecutive undefeated seasons and New Jersey sectional championships. The Liners beat Union 42-20 on Friday and will play Elizabeth in a sectional final Dec. 1 at Rutgers. "Don't get me wrong, it's a nice title to have," Stem says. "But (beating) Easton is more important by far."

•Easton (11-1) beat Parkland 17-15 on Friday on a 36-yard field goal with 2.7 seconds left in the Pennsylvania playoffs. On Saturday, the Rovers play Liberty, the only team to beat them this season; the winner advances to a state quarterfinal.

That means Easton will play twice in three days. Other coaches "think I'm crazy," Shiffert says. "We make no excuses. We chose this path."

Easton has taken the path twice before. In 2003, the Rovers lost to Phillipsburg and lost again in the playoffs two days later. In 2004, they beat Phillipsburg and won again in the playoffs two days later, before losing a week after that.

How will the Rovers practice for two teams in one week? They won't. "You practice for Phillipsburg," Shiffert says. "Friday we'll look at video of Liberty and loosen up. But we won't get on the field."

Both are perennial powers

The hoo-ha is equal parts cottage industry (T-shirts, calendars, medallions), festival (bonfires, fireworks, parades) and football game (Easton leads the series 54-40-5).

This photo of the two teams was taken on the "old bridge" separating the two towns - a bridge with which your author is familiar having grown up in Pennsylvania decades ago when the legal drinking age was 21 in Pennsylvania but only 18 across the river in New Jersey (memories of Ida's Hole in the Wall are hazy, but still retrievable).

Your author also put on a Red Rovers uniform through his junior year, but being small and slow with little heart, it just wasn't to be.

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Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

All that Neal Page wants to do is to get home for Thanksgiving. His flight has been cancelled due to bad weather, so he decides on other means of transport. As well as bad luck, Neal is blessed with the presence of Del Griffith, "Shower Curtain Ring Salesman" and all-around blabbermouth, who is never short of advice, conversation, bad jokes, or company. And when he decides that he is going the same direction as Neal...

Today we depart from the normal fare to recall the 1987 John Hughes classic Planes, Trains, and Automobiles starring Steve Martin and John Candy. Over the years, the viewing of this film on Thanksgiving eve has become a family tradition - this summary is provided to readers courtesy of IMDb (Internet Movie Database) and various fan sites.

Owen: I'm to drive you to Wichita to catch a train?
Del: Yeah, we'd appreciate it.
Owen: Train don't run out of Wichita... unlessin' you're a hog or a cattle.
[Clears his throat]
Owen: People train runs out of Stubbville.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles is the story of two very different men who wind up traveling together from New York to Chicago in the day and a half before Thanksgiving. Due to bad weather and various other mishaps, it turns into a worst-case travel scenario.

Neal Page is stuck in a meeting in New York, desperate to get home. He glances at his watch to see that he has less than two hours to get to the airport. He tries desperately to hail a cab, and when he finally gets one, Del Griffith steals it, accidentally. This is the first of many encounters between Neil and Del.

When Neil finally gets to the airport, he is horrified to find that his flight is cancelled due to weather. Neil recognizes Del, who is sitting across from him at the gate.

Neil finally boards the plane only to discover that he’s been bumped to coach. No sooner than he can say, “I can’t wait to see what happens next!” he finds out he’s sitting next to Del.

Neal: Eh, look, I don't want to be rude, but I'm not much of a conversationalist, and I really want to finish this article, a friend of mine wrote it, so...

Del: Don't let me stand in your way, please don't let me stand in your way. The last thing I want to be remembered as is an annoying blabbermouth... You know, nothing grinds my gears worse than some chowderhead that doesn't know when to keep his big trap shut... If you catch me running off with my mouth, just give me a poke on the chubbs...

The plane is diverted to Wichita, where Del offers to share a hotel room with Neil for the night when Neil has no luck finding one himself. Waking up after sharing the same bed (.wav file):

Neal: Del... Why did you kiss my ear?
Del: Why are you holding my hand?
Neal: Where's your other hand?
Del: Between two pillows...
Neal: Those aren't pillows!
[They both stand up and awkwardly walk around the room]
Neal: Did you see that Bears game last week?
Del: Yeah, hell of a game, hell of a game. The Bears have a great team this year - they're going go all the way.

From here, they embark on a desperate journey to get home in time for Thanksgiving. After being unable to find his rental car in the remote lot and barely surviving the three-mile hike back to the rental office, Neal has this now-famous exchange with a too-cheerful rental car agent played by Edi McClurg (.wav file):

Car Rental Agent: Welcome to Marathon, may I help you?
Neal: Yes.
Car Rental Agent: How may I help you?
Neal: You can start by wiping that f**king dumbass smile off your rosy f**cking cheeks! Then you can give me a f**king automobile: a f**king Datsun, a f**king Toyota, a f**king Mustang, a f**king Buick! Four f**king wheels and a seat!
Car Rental Agent: I really don't care for the way you're speaking to me.
Neal: And I really don't care for the way your company left me in the middle of f**king nowhere with f**king keys to a f**king car that isn't f**king there. And I really didn't care to f**king walk down a f**king highway and across a f**king runway to get back here to have you smile at my f**king face. I want a f**king car RIGHT F**KING NOW!
Car Rental Agent: May I see your rental agreement.
Neal: I threw it away.
Car Rental Agent: Oh boy.
Neal: Oh boy what?
Car Rental Agent: You're f**ked!

After Del manages to rent a car for the two of them, they find themselves driving the wrong way on a divided highway late at night. Another motorist, driving in the proper direction on the other side of the highway, tries to tell them that they are going the wrong way, toward oncoming traffic, as Neal awakens from a nap:

Neal: He says we're going the wrong way...
Del: Oh, he's drunk. How would he know where we're going?

After barely surviving the encounter with two tractor-trailers, they accidentally set their rental car ablaze. It remains drivable (barely), until they are pulled over:

State Trooper: What the hell are you driving here?
Del: We had a small fire last night, but we caught it in the nick of time.
State Trooper: Do you have any idea how fast you were going?
Del: Funny enough, I was just talking to my friend about that. Our speedometer has melted and as a result it's very hard to see with any degree of accuracy exactly how fast we were going.

With the rental car impounded, they are left with no alternative than to seek bus transportation:

Del: You're in a pretty lousy mood, huh?
Neal: To say the least.
Del: You ever travel by bus before?
[Neal shakes his head]
Del: Hmm. Your mood's probably not going to improve much.

After more tumult, they finally make it back to Chicago, both having learned a lot about themselves and each other.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles is a wonderful film - very funny, with great performances from the entire cast, especially John Candy, who may have given the best performance of his career, which was tragically cut short by his untimely death in 1994.

Highly recommended.

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Groundhog Day

Like Phil Conners encountering Ned Ryerson on consecutive mornings in the 1993 classic Groundhog Day, incoming mail with links to stories on one particular subject have become a recurring event around here.

The frequency is not yet daily, the calendar does continue to advance, and looking at the inbox does not elicit anything like the final response by Phil (Bill Murray) to Ned (Stephen Tobolowsky) after being queried repeatedly on the same subject - but there are some similarities.
As you'll recall, the arrogant, egocentric, and frustrated weatherman from a Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania TV station was assigned to the annual Groundhog Day festivities in Punxsutawney, only to find himself experiencing the same day, February 2nd, over and over.

His interaction with a high school classmate on consecutive days went like this:

-- Day 1 --

Ned: Phil? Phil Connors? Phil Connors, I thought that was you! Hey now, don't you tell me you don't remember me 'cause I sure as heckfire remember you.
Phil: Not a chance.
Ned: Ned... Ryerson. "Needlenose Ned"? "Ned the Head"? C'mon, buddy. Case Western High. I did the whistling belly-button trick at the high school talent show? Bing. Ned Ryerson, got the shingles real bad senior year, almost didn't graduate? Bing, again. I dated your sister Mary Pat a couple of times until you told me not to anymore? Well?
Phil: Did you turn pro with that belly button thing or what?
Ned: I sell insurance.
Phil: What a shock.
Ned: Do you have life insurance, Phil? Because if you do, you could always use a little more. I mean who couldn't? Am I right or am I right?
Phil: I would love to stand here and talk with you, but I'm not going to.
[Phil walks away, Ned follows]
Ned: I'll walk with you. Whenever I see an opportunity now, I charge it like a bull. Ned the Bull, that's me now. I have friends who live and die by the actuarial tables. It's all one big crap shoot. Have you ever heard of single premium life? I think that really could be the ticket for you.
[Phil turns to cross the street]
God! It is so good to see you! What are you doing for dinner?
Phil: Something else.
Ned: Watch out for that first step. It's a doozy!
[Phil steps into a pothole full of icy water]

-- Day 2 --

Ned: Phil? Phil Connors? Phil Connors, I thought that was you! Hey now, don't you tell me you don't remember me 'cause I sure as heckfire remember you.
Phil: Ned Ryerson?
Ned: Bing! First shot right out of the box! How's it going, old buddy?
Phil: Actually, I'm not feeling well. Would you excuse me?
Ned: It's funny you should mention your health. You will never guess what I do now.
Phil: Do you sell insurance?
Ned: Bing again! You are sharp as a tack today. Do you have life insurance? If you do, you could always use more. Right? Who couldn't? You know something? I got a feeling you ain't got any. Am I right or am I right?
Phil: I gotta go.
Ned: Watch out for that first step. It's a doozy.
[Phil avoids the pothole]

-- Day 3 --

Ned: Phil?
Phil: Ned.
[Phil punches Ned in the face]

-- Later that day --

Phil: I was in the Virgin Islands once. I met a girl. We ate lobster and drank pina coladas. At sunset we made love like sea otters. That was a pretty good day. Why couldn't I get that day over and over and over...

There were other memorable scenes - one with a train and an automobile, another with a dive from an open second story barn door. Whatever the case, again today, a long row has been hoed, with an as-yet-uncertain payoff.

So what is it around here that feels something like Groundhog Day?

What steady stream of correspondence has prompted such a comparison?

Well, with all the talking that Alan Greenspan has been doing lately, much of it aimed at defending his actions while Federal Reserve chairman and the rest thinly disguised cheerleading for the housing bubble he left behind, many writers have taken him to task.

And links to those stories are being forwarded here with increasing frequency.

It has been a regular occurrence in the last month or so - since he called the bottom of the housing market (kind of), then went on to explain why one percent interest rates weren't necessarily a bad thing.

New this week is this story from Caroline Baum (the "Baumer", as she is sometimes referred to here) where she claims "first reviewer" status of the Maestro's handiwork.

Greenspan Legacy Submits to Its First Review

Alan Greenspan didn't go quietly from the global stage when he retired as chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. His speeches are still widely reported, his economic views and forecasts instantly disseminated.

It would probably be better if they weren't.

His latest "forecast" -- that the worst of the housing slump is over -- was rudely challenged Friday when the Commerce Department said October housing starts plunged 14.6 percent from the prior month to a six-year low. Starts were down 27.4 percent in October from a year earlier; single-family starts have fallen by more than a third since the start of the year. Housing permits declined for the ninth consecutive month, a record.

Having presided over the late 1990s stock-market bubble, and having cut interest rates aggressively to clean up the mess when it burst, Greenspan has a vested interest in the health of the housing market. If the residential real-estate boom ends badly, as all bubbles do, he could go down in history as a "DBCB", or double-bubble central banker.

No wonder Greenspan is laying out a new framework for analyzing the once-soaring property market. In a speech to a private group in Canada last month, Greenspan said the housing boom wasn't a response to the "1 percent fed funds rate or from the Fed's easing. It came from the collapse of the Berlin Wall."

Yes, the Berlin Wall theory of self propagating asset bubbles, or, as the Baumer puts it, the "Fallen Walls Doctrine" - a perfectly rationale explanation.

At the Cato Institute's Monetary Conference last week, apparently the 2002-2004 pedal-to-the-metal approach to interest rate policy, believed in many circles to be largely responsible for what is now a quickly deflating housing bubble - this policy was roundly criticized.

"Did the Greenspan Fed err by providing too much liquidity in 2001-2004?'' Frankel said. "My answer is 'probably yes.' I await Woodward's customary follow-up book.'' (Perhaps "Plan of Attack'' is to "State of Denial'' as "Maestro'' is to "Rookie?'')

Cato Chairman William Niskanen was no more complimentary of Greenspan's crisis management (no mention of risk management).

"Ben Bernanke's next major challenge will be to avoid the recession that may be a consequence of deflating the demand bubble that he inherited from Alan Greenspan,'' Niskanen said. The record of the past 20 years suggests the Fed's overreaction to financial crises raises the probability of recession, imposing a "long-term cost'' on the economy.

Gee. A new Woodward book? Nice angle. Where has that been heard before?

Oh yeah - A New Woodward Book? - that was here, about a week ago (someone will have to explain the Baumer's proposed title - "Rookie?" - not gettin' it here).

Are people really surprised that things might get a little rocky now that the latest asset bubble is losing air rapidly? Could others not see the folly at the time and calculate the odds of an undesirable outcome?

Maybe a lot of people have been living in a sort of Groundhog day where, like Phil Conners' experience in Punxsutawney, asset bubbles keep occurring over and over - each time pretty much the same thing, only slightly different.

[Note: Please continue to send links to Greenspan stories this way - today's post was just in fun, and none of you should fear being punched, as poor Ned was.]

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Falling Down

No, not the 1993 movie starring Michael Douglas as an unemployed and divorced defense industry engineer who reaches his boiling point after getting stuck in LA traffic.

As you'll recall, after abandoning his car, William 'D-Fens' Foster takes a baseball bat to the candy aisle of a convenience store after an uncooperative clerk rubs him the wrong way. He then interacts with gang members, guns, and finally Robert Duvall as a retiring police officer who just wants to get to his daughter's birthday party.

Ah ... the early 90s in Los Angeles ... a time when a little baby housing boom was going bust, defense workers were wishing for a return of the Cold War and Cisco, Yahoo! and Amazon were tiny companies.

Sergey Brin and Larry Page were still teenagers and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was just getting warmed up.

No, the title of today's post is not in reference to aerospace engineers, but rather, petroleum engineers and the theory of peak oil (yes, that was a long row to hoe, but this is going to be movie-themed week here - well, at least today and Thursday).

[Begin awkward segue.]

While Michael Douglas could be easily mistaken for an oil industry engineer who had trouble keeping himself upright, Dave Cohen and the good folks at The Oil Drum are quick with a rebuttal to a recent (and very expensive) report from CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) with a similar sounding name:

Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down -- Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources

This sixteen page report is available for only $1,000 - nice margins!

The critique of the CERA report at The Oil Drum is available for $1,000 less:

Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA

It begins:

With the release of Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down — Myths, Legends and the Future of Oil Resources by Peter M. Jackson, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) attempts to cast doubt on the credibility of those with imminent, empirically-based concerns about our future oil supply.

CERA's "Decision Brief" requires a response because since 1870, the health of the world's economies have hinged on a secure, dependable and growing flow of "conventional" oil. Their forecast, shown in Figure 1, predicts that the oil supply will continue to grow and sustain economic growth.
We shall have much more to say about CERA's forecast later. For now, it is sufficient to note that CERA's analysis is lacking. The world's oil supply will not continue to grow to meet ever-rising global demand, and worse, the consequences could irrevocably damage global economies. Such an outcome would have harmful effects on people's lives. So, this debate is not "academic" — much depends on a correct analysis of the future oil supply.

They actually have quite a bit to say about the report in this post from last Thursday, starting out with a detailed description of what peak oil is and what it is not, then going on to rebut many of the assertions made in the CERA report, including the emphasis on reserves rather than production and many technical nits that are far too detailed and well constructed to be dismissed.

In fact the level of detail in Dave Cohen's rebuttal is quite impressive - anyone who thinks that the idea of peak oil is just more crazy talk from conspiracy theorists should have a look.

The Oil Drum retort takes exception to, among many other things, the tone of the CERA report:

Peak Oil Modeling Theory & Data

CERA berates those concerned about peak oil, labeled peakists in their document, for using questionable data and analysis methods. This passage is worth quoting in full.

"We are also struck by three characteristics of the current debate:

* The peakist argument is not grounded in a credible systematic evaluation of available data.

* The peakist arguments cluster around the questionable model described by the late American geologist M. King Hubbert. This is a technique that fails to recognize both that recoverable reserves estimates evolve with time and are subject to constant and often significant change. It also underplays the far-reaching impact of technological advances.

* Some of the peakists are, interestingly, shifting their emphasis away from running out, in terms of physical resources, to issues that we believe are significant--infrastructure and aboveground risks."

Here we must take exception to CERA's characterization of peak oil research, especially here at The Oil Drum. Not only have we tracked CERA's bottom-up project- by-project analysis in the past —a complete list of stories is too long to enumerate here— but we also avail ourselves of whatever data we can find, such as the Megaprojects Database compiled by Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Petroleum Review.

Space limitations preclude going into much detail here, but suffice it to say that it is a bit disingenuous for an organization such as CERA, a wholly-owned subsidiary of IHS Energy, to charge money for it's reports for paying clients and then turn around and tell us that we are unfamiliar with the current & future oil production data. This points up a larger issue which Matt Simmons has brought to the forefront of public attention: data transparency in the world's oil industry. Just as we can not see some of CERA's field-by-field production projections, we also can not see an historical production profile or this year's monthly production data for Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil field. For an issue so crucial to the health of world economies, the lack of readily accessible data is scandalous. A pro bono approach would make data available to independent organizations that have an interest in analyzing it.

The piece is well worth reading in its entirety along with many of the comments (over 300 as of today). At around number 70 or so, a commenter brings up the subject of CERA funding, posting some helpful links:

Bartlett & Udall respond to latest CERA report
Slashdot readers ask who pays CERA?
Google search: Who pays CERA?

As Matt Simmons (Twilight in the Desert) has commented on many occasions, the opinions at CERA are paid for by an industry that has certain interests that are not necessary in line with the greater good.

As always, follow the money.

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