tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post115297477568395263..comments2023-11-05T04:36:14.223-08:00Comments on The Mess That Greenspan Made: Changing the Way Investors ThinkTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154148139807285062006-07-28T21:42:00.000-07:002006-07-28T21:42:00.000-07:00The commodities "boom" is a money thing called inf...The commodities "boom" is a money thing called inflation. This is what it looks and feels like. It happens every time the fed lowers rates too far and holds them down too long. <BR/><BR/>The "peak" logic would have us believe we have crossed the threshold of "peak" housing. Same bubble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154054368740472692006-07-27T19:39:00.000-07:002006-07-27T19:39:00.000-07:00Kerk93: The US was only semi-on the gold standard ...Kerk93: <BR/><BR/>The US was only semi-on the gold standard from 1932-1971 anyway. Internationally, gold was still available on demand to settle the current account. But internally, US citizens were beholden to the inflationary dictates of the Fed.<BR/><BR/>There were silver and gold notes circulated variously until the 50s, IIRC, but being "real" promissary notes backed by precious metals, they were driven out of circulation much earlier than this and hence ceased to have any sort of common use (Gresham's law).<BR/><BR/>When you look at this in retrospect, it is obvious the US just didn't have the international cachet to swindle the global community early on; it could only bully around its own citizens until 1971. At that point the US was clearly the anti-communist/petrodollar superpower of the free world and could do basically whatever it wanted (including tax the entire globe through dollar inflation).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154044918956031412006-07-27T17:01:00.000-07:002006-07-27T17:01:00.000-07:00Anon 1:12,All commodities, but with an emphasis on...Anon 1:12,<BR/><BR/>All commodities, but with an emphasis on energy and precious metals - about equal amounts of commodities and related companies in the form of ETFs, mutual funds, and individual stocks - all available through any brokerage like ETRADE, Schwab, etc.<BR/><BR/>If you go <A HREF="http://www.iaconoresearch.com/About/welcome_blog.html" REL="nofollow">here</A> you can sign up for a free two week trial at the website, then go to the <A HREF="http://www.iaconoresearch.com/Subscribers/Portfolio/portfolio.html" REL="nofollow">Portfolio</A> page for details, and be sure to see the <A HREF="http://www.iaconoresearch.com/Subscribers/NewSubscribers/new_subscribers.html" REL="nofollow">Guide For New Subscribers</A> though you are under no obligation to purchase anything - all your questions will be answered.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154031167263440622006-07-27T13:12:00.000-07:002006-07-27T13:12:00.000-07:00OK, so let's assume I'm convinced that commodities...OK, so let's assume I'm convinced that commodities will out-perform stocks for the next 10 years, and I'm willing to stay invested for that long (I am).<BR/><BR/>So, is this commodities in general (including the foodstuffs), or just oil/gas, metals and the like? I know that oil is getting scarce, and I've always liked a little gold, but what's the best *way* to invest in these?<BR/><BR/>Mutual funds by sectors? Specific companies? Companies that produce/mine, or those that transport and/or invest in them?<BR/><BR/>I'm not looking for specific funds or companies, just the flavor...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154022768918873042006-07-27T10:52:00.000-07:002006-07-27T10:52:00.000-07:00(Of course this logic fails in the global economic...(Of course this logic fails in the global economic armageddon scenario.)<BR/><BR/>the response to a scenario would mean lower interests rates, more money and a flight into hard assets.john_law_the_IIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14231101798981208231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154022390885784612006-07-27T10:46:00.000-07:002006-07-27T10:46:00.000-07:00(I have a hard time reconciling how you can be bea...(I have a hard time reconciling how you can be bearish on the economy, but bullish on commodities. When the recession hits, wont "stuff" get cheaper due to less demand?)<BR/><BR/>if that were true, there would never be a bull market in commodities because the price would cause a recession and drop demand for commodities. were the 70s times of good economic growth, because that's when commodities were roaring?<BR/><BR/>let's take the reverse of your argument. if a recession weakens commodity demand, then growth must push up commodity prices, no? that doesn't not explain how during the 80s and 90s we had growth but continuously falling.<BR/><BR/>the fact is during secular cycles, the economy grows BECAUSE commodities are in a bear market. this makes doing business cheaper and boosts profits.<BR/><BR/>as you can see from the charts, a commodity secular bull happened during the 30s. sure, commodities fell hard from 1929-1932, but I think that commodities fell far enough during the 80s and 90s for a repeat.john_law_the_IIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14231101798981208231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154021092200927922006-07-27T10:24:00.000-07:002006-07-27T10:24:00.000-07:00Steve,Even in a depression, a certain level of con...Steve,<BR/><BR/>Even in a depression, a certain level of consumption is guaranteed. Factor in (a) the initial supply/demand imbalance combined with (b) the continued declining production of existing, aging facilities and (c) the long lead times to develop new production, and you have an extended boom. The tighter money in a recessionary environment can only exacerbate the problems of bringing new supplies on-line.<BR/><BR/>Rogers makes this case pretty well in his books.TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154020690432383792006-07-27T10:18:00.000-07:002006-07-27T10:18:00.000-07:00Steve,I'm not sure what you mean by "bearish on th...Steve,<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure what you mean by "bearish on the economy". If you mean "expecting a recession sometime in the next year or two", then I'd say that I'm bearish. Given that there will be weakness in commodities during a recession, the question becomes,"If you are overall bullish on commodities for the longer term, what do you do about an approaching recession?"<BR/><BR/>My view is that timing exit and reentry to try to avoid the recession is a fool's errand because you just don't know what's going to happen. If you remain invested through the duration of the bull market, maybe the next ten years, then you'll be much better off, especially if you get in early enough to ride through the tough times sitting on gains.<BR/><BR/>Remember that stocks took almost two years to recover from the setback in 1987 and almost a year to recover from the 1990-1991 recession. If you had been fully committed to stocks in the early-mid 1980s, riding out these rough periods would have been much easier to handle, both financially and emotionally.<BR/><BR/>Of course this logic fails in the global economic armageddon scenario.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154019490507010962006-07-27T09:58:00.000-07:002006-07-27T09:58:00.000-07:00Peak everything,a . Just tell me when to invest i...Peak everything,a . Just tell me when to invest in the landfill mine ETF's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154014571834332832006-07-27T08:36:00.000-07:002006-07-27T08:36:00.000-07:00Tim, my apologies if you addressed this before..I ...Tim, my apologies if you addressed this before..<BR/><BR/>I have a hard time reconciling how you can be bearish on the economy, but bullish on commodities. When the recession hits, wont "stuff" get cheaper due to less demand?Steve Wilberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08387454609723386046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154014485442085482006-07-27T08:34:00.000-07:002006-07-27T08:34:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Steve Wilberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08387454609723386046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-1154013445862133862006-07-27T08:17:00.000-07:002006-07-27T08:17:00.000-07:00The interesting thing at this time in history is t...The interesting thing at this time in history is that we may be approaching "peak <I>everything.</I>" In other words, we may have taken more "stuff" out of the ground than is left to find, so basic commodities may become scarcer and scarcer for quite some time.<BR/><BR/>It's not just "peak oil" but "peak copper," "peak gold," etc. I believe there will eventually be a solution of sorts to the oil situation (maybe genetically engineered organisms that directly produce something that can be used as fuel from sunlight and basic nutrients), but you can't make basic metals. Until we have mining operations on other planets, we're stuck with what's left here on Earth.<BR/><BR/>That's going to make commodities awfully expensive for years and years.<BR/><BR/>- PeteAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com