tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post6077240431779900783..comments2023-11-05T04:36:14.223-08:00Comments on The Mess That Greenspan Made: Definitely Not the BottomTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16530974968126497397noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-74588580459497823402007-02-21T06:31:00.000-08:002007-02-21T06:31:00.000-08:00Mathematically speaking, New Home Sales could reac...Mathematically speaking, New Home Sales could reach a seasonally adjusted rate of 550k before a true bottom is etched. I derive this by noting that in the worst of times, about 1% of total households in the U.S. are still turning over in the New Home market.<BR/><BR/>Using the same methodology, housing starts would likely bottom out at a seasonally adjusted ~1.0 to ~1.2M.<BR/><BR/>Of course, this completely ignores interest rate movements and affordability which are important too. A fall in rates means affordability rises, all else being equal.rvb1977https://www.blogger.com/profile/02913598787020964934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-36528877715981889342007-02-19T09:16:00.000-08:002007-02-19T09:16:00.000-08:00Have you looked at a plot of the Dow over the last...Have you looked at a plot of the Dow over the last six months? Overlay that curve over the Nasdaq in 1999. The Dow is blowing a big bubble, that's all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-63994473020408654722007-02-18T15:51:00.000-08:002007-02-18T15:51:00.000-08:00"I agree with the last poster. The Dow hit an all ..."I agree with the last poster. The Dow hit an all time high once before -- 1929. You can't tell if someone has cancer by taking their temperature."<BR/><BR/>I hope you aren't a teacher. Now that would be scary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-12511891814314107622007-02-18T13:41:00.000-08:002007-02-18T13:41:00.000-08:00housing prices? what a plebian concern. go big or ...housing prices? what a plebian concern. go big or go home. you shouldn't be buying if you won't be there for 5 years and over that time it is highly unlikely you'd be upside down on a house.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-32348239887777081392007-02-17T18:11:00.000-08:002007-02-17T18:11:00.000-08:00I agree with the last poster. The Dow hit an all ...I agree with the last poster. The Dow hit an all time high once before -- 1929. You can't tell if someone has cancer by taking their temperature.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-16473529522951415962007-02-16T17:38:00.000-08:002007-02-16T17:38:00.000-08:00Anonymous said:"Back in the real world the Dow clo...Anonymous said:<BR/><BR/>"Back in the real world the Dow closes at an all time high." <BR/><BR/>Who says the Dow has anything to do with the real world? The real world is folks up to their eyeballs in debt, two jobs, stagnant income growth, and climbing ARM payments that likely will spell foreclosure for many. Rah Rah go Dow Jones.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-25341910112161270362007-02-16T16:24:00.000-08:002007-02-16T16:24:00.000-08:00I'm old enough to have been to the bottom and seen...I'm old enough to have been to the bottom and seen what it looks like. Believe me. We're pretty close to the top.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-49065750642221167942007-02-16T16:16:00.000-08:002007-02-16T16:16:00.000-08:00Meanwhile back in the real world the Dow closes at...Meanwhile back in the real world the Dow closes at an all time high.<BR/><BR/>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aJBk7kTR3gbc&refer=stocksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-40629531207681113382007-02-16T15:23:00.000-08:002007-02-16T15:23:00.000-08:00What amazes me is the fact that there are STILL, S...What amazes me is the fact that there are STILL, STILL people out there paying $869K on homes...<BR/><BR/>My friend just put an offer on a house in the Valley area (Los Angeles for $880K....the house price listed was $925K.<BR/><BR/>To buy this house, they are a family of 6...him, his parents, his wife, kid, and grandmother.<BR/><BR/>They are renting out his grandmother's paid off apartment, they are selling their current condo for a hopeful $300K profit.<BR/><BR/>This is what people are doing now to buy homes in So Cal...regular working couples who live by themselves have no chance...will they ever? And why would they even want to stay here anymore anyway?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-6360017010315748322007-02-16T12:25:00.000-08:002007-02-16T12:25:00.000-08:00david andrew taylor:Bad news for you. The cold ou...david andrew taylor:<BR/><BR/>Bad news for you. The cold outside ain't the real "weather" for the real estate market, buddy. The real weather <A HREF="http://ml-implode.com" REL="nofollow">is in subprime lending</A>, and the storm is spreading up the tranches to prime.<BR/><BR/>It's exactly what us bubble bloggers have been saying for the past year or two: at some point the US financial economy would have to pay the piper for letting the median household condition deteriorate and pasting it over with more and more credit. That point is now.<BR/><BR/>I estimate we can kiss 10-30% of the buy-side activity in the housing market goodbye for the next few quarters. This is going to be like nothing that has ever been seen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-21631008640770493222007-02-16T11:50:00.000-08:002007-02-16T11:50:00.000-08:00no, its all good! Didn't you see the Homebuilder'...no, its all good! Didn't you see the Homebuilder's stocks have bounced? That means the bottom is in . . .Ritholtzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08608448405502237269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-20787263587980191692007-02-16T09:29:00.000-08:002007-02-16T09:29:00.000-08:00True, the housing market has been cooling off. Bu...True, the housing market has been cooling off. But, I'm not going to jump on the bandwagon that there's nothing but doom and gloom just yet. In fact, we did see a leveling out in the housing market. Then we saw some serious weather. Perhaps it's a bit early to call this until we see the rest of the winter's releases and into the summer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-68339771980342624612007-02-16T08:13:00.000-08:002007-02-16T08:13:00.000-08:00I live in SoCal. The house down the street from me...I live in SoCal. The house down the street from me sold for $960K last July. I think they were in foreclosure, so they listed at $899 in December and made a quick exit. The place sold for $869. For Sale signs are sprouting up like weeds - we're not even close to the bottom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11719208.post-23612298703819742072007-02-16T07:24:00.000-08:002007-02-16T07:24:00.000-08:00it will be interesting to see how wall street and ...it will be interesting to see how wall street and the reic will spin this. <BR/><BR/>one thing for sure will be that this is good news for the builders (will be lower inventory down the road...),<BR/><BR/>blame the weather....., <BR/><BR/>cooling......,<BR/><BR/>leveling off....,<BR/><BR/>the bottom .....,<BR/><BR/>the fed will lower rates....., <BR/><BR/>blah blah ......... <BR/><BR/>have a nice weekendjmfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com