Wikinvest Wire

Greenspan Overload

Sunday, August 28, 2005

Someone's been in the news over the weekend ...

From the Central Bankers
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan - Reflections on central banking
Remarks by Governor Donald L. Kohn
Monetary Policy and 'Credible Alertness' - Jean-Claude Trichet
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan - Closing Remarks

Reuters - Glenn Somerville
Fed eyes asset-price rises closely-Greenspan
Rubin: problems await Greenspan successor
Greenspan heir must replace 'one-man band'-Blinder
Greenspan: end of housing boom inevitable
Markets should heed central banks-Kohn

Associated Press - Jeannine Aversa
Greenspan: Investments Won't Soar Forever
Greenspan Confident About His Successor
Greenspan: Housing Market Will Cool Off
Crisis Management Is Greenspan's Specialty
Greenspan issues warning

Washington Post - Nell Henderson
Jackson Hole Symposium -- 2005 Program
Rocky Mountain High Finance
Paper: Understanding the Greenspan Standard
Rubin Praises Stance Of Greenspan on Deficits
Greenspan Confident About Successors
Greenspan Cites Economic Risks For Consumers

New York Times - Edmund L. Andrews
The Doctrine Was Not to Have One
Greenspan Warns That Economic Risks Remain
Greenspan Chides Investors
Greenspan Says Housing Boom Is Nearly Over

Los Angeles Times - Bill Sing
If 'Bubble' Bursts, Legacy of Greenspan May Deflate
Fed Chief Warns on Housing Costs
Fed Chief's Comments, New Data Hit Stocks

Bloomberg - various
Ready for the Greenspan Hosannas? Here's Mine: Caroline Baum
Asset Bubbles or Bust -- What's the Fed to Do?
Greenspan Fans at Jackson Hole May Differ on View of Bubbles
U.S. Treasuries Fall on Greenspan Speech; Yield Curve Shrinks
Greenspan Successor May Limit `Explicit' Guidance, Study Says
Greenspan Says Housing Boom to `Simmer Down,' Prices May Fall
Fed's Kohn Defends Communicating Interest Rate Moves
Greenspan Says Fed Paying Attention to Asset Prices

CBS MarketWatch - Greg Robb
The measure of the chairman
Next Fed chief faces uncharted waters
Housing Boom is an Imbalance: Greenspan
Bernanke, Hubbard, Feldstein or ?
Oil prices biggest risk, Sinai says
Greenspan keeps secrets of success
Housing boom will 'simmer down'
Greenspan to have succession role

CNN/Money - Kathleen Hays
Greenspan: Hero? Or goat?
Greenspan: Rein in risk
Greenspan: Risks from deficits, housing

Financial Times - Andrew Balls
Greenspan warns on impact of asset prices
'Market trauma' warning when Greenspan goes
Greenspan warns on dangers in US housing market

Dallas Morning News - Danielle DiMartino
Greenspan Cites Warning Signs

Times Online - Graham Searjeant
US heading for house price crash, Greenspan tells buyers

U.S. News - Paul J. Lim
Greenspan's tenure: From bust to bust?

San Francisco Chronicle - Alan T. Saracevic
The real power guys -- Greenspan decipherers

Investors Business Daily - Kirk Shinkle
Greenspan Offers Cautious Outlook, Concerns On Debt

Prudent Bear Credit Bubble Bulletin - Doug Noland
The Greenspan Era: Lessons to be Learned

New Economist
Papers from the August 2005 Jackson Hole symposium
Dean Baker slams Greenspan's record

Economist's View
Greenspan Sums It Up
Fed Watch: Forecast Calls For More Rate Hikes
Robert Rubin Praises Greenspan’s Opposition to Deficits
Greenspan’s Closing Remarks

The Top Ten Things We Have Learned From Alan Greenspan...

MaxSpeak, You Listen


Anonymous said...

Hey, I want to echo what the anonymous poster at 12:29 p.m. said: this is a great blog, and keep up the good work on both the sourcing and the analysis. Today's post has an enourmous amount of very interesting primary and secondary source material.

One commentary you did leave out (perhaps because it is from a paid subscription source and you probably believe, as I do, that the best things in life are free) is the August 26 Investors' Soapbox on, entitled "Fed Eyes Asset Prices to Guide Policy." They read Greenspan's August 26 Jackson Hole speech, and they conclude:

This could mean that the Fed must be careful to not collapse asset (meaning house prices) prices. The Fed must not be fixated on a particular economic model.

That could mean that the Fed must not be fixated on a particular inflation target. It should be flexible and, perhaps, let inflation move above the perceived 2% level if it is perceived to be temporary.

Now, I read the same speech (which you have very helpfully linked to above), and I don't derive the same inflationary implications at all. What I derive is an extremely important speech in which Greenspan says he sees a large number of storm clouds on the horizon, most of which have very serious deflationary implications. He also talks about asset price targeting and the fact that the "uncertainty principle" is an extremely important determinant of monetary policy. (John Mauldin, on pages 197-202 of his book, mentions some earlier speeches in which Greenspan discussed this principle.)

You also might want to take a look at a couple of articles that appeared in today's LA Times:

"Equity Is Altering Spending Habits and View of Debt",0,6044251.story?coll=la-home-headlines


"A fresh calamity?",0,7747419.story?coll=la-home-realestate

both of which are discussed at the "Calculated Risk" blog.

My own view of the LA Times is that it is an excellent contrary indicator, especially when discussing California real estate. So, even though these two articles do not directly discuss monetary policy, they are nevertheless important indicators that the trend toward increasing leverage is about over and, perhaps, that paying down debt is about to come back into style.

Anonymous said...

Let me also throw this link into the mix, where Mauldin discusses Greenspan and Jackson Hole.


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