Wikinvest Wire

My Right Index Finger Hurts

Friday, December 02, 2005

Buying a few gold coins a couple years back has turned out to be a terrible decision when considering the current plight of my right index finger, and probably many more like it all around the world. With gold prices reaching new 22 year highs at $503 per ounce yesterday in New York, and having waited for what seems like an eternity for confirmation of having made such a shrewd investment decision, watching the gold price action in the last few weeks has turned into a potential health hazard.

A potential health hazard, that is, caused by repetitive left mouse button clicking to learn the latest spot gold price from Kitco.

Since mid-November when the Federal Reserve announced they were going to discontinue reporting of the total number of U.S. dollars foisted upon the world, gold has been on a tear. The yellow metal has climbed from $470 per ounce to $503, an annualized rate of nearly 170 percent (OK, admittedly, this percent change is meaningless as it is based on only two weeks of data for a very volatile price - but after looking at so much annualized GDP data in the last couple days, annualizing it seemed like the right thing to do).

It seems many more people now want in on the precious metals sector - gold, silver, platinum, palladium - and prices are being bid up. Maybe the hope is that with the noticeable cooling of housing, the next asset bubble has been identified in an early, formative stage.

The equivalent of buying technology stocks in 1996 or real estate in 2002 - maybe.

Soon, company nurses may be inundated with employees complaining of wrist, hand, and index finger fatigue (purportedly from working too hard) requiring alternative approaches to make the workplace more comfortable - switch hands, try a trackball, use a touch pad.

OSHA might have to get involved. Ultimately a warning label may be mandated for all American Gold Eagle coins - "Warning - Excessive checking of the spot gold price could be hazardous to your health".

The Impact on Productivity

But when you think about it, there is a potential impact far greater than the health issues - this could have some rather severe repercussions throughout the business world.

Gold prices are not like real estate prices. You never really know what house prices are until months later - it's not like this data is updated every minute with ready access via the internet. And, back in the late 1990s when technology and many other stocks were soaring, not everyone had a computer with a broadband connection in front of them all day long. That was a different era - CNBC instead of ESPN at the local pub, waiting for CSCO or QCOM to come crawling across the bottom of the screen.

Very little stress on the digits and the left mouse button.

Today, many millions of workers have computers in front of them and ready access to the internet all day long. And, if they were wise enough to purchase a few gold coins a while back or even at today's prices, they may end up spending hours each day checking the price of gold.

Let's do some quick math:

  • Refresh your favorite provider of the Kitco spot price - 1 second
  • Wait for it to update - 2 seconds
  • Marvel at the new number - 5 seconds
A total of 8 seconds per refresh, then figure this is done once every 20 seconds during an eight hour work day and that works out to be over three hours a day!

This could be a huge productivity problem.

On the bright side for business, surely the standard computer mouse has not been designed to withstand the repetitive action precipitated by recent and possible future gold price action. This may kick off a boom in mouse manufacturing, research and development to provide better, more durable pointing devices, ultimately resulting in new sustained economic growth for years to come.

Or, maybe not.

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[UPDATE - Friday 12/2 - 8:11 AM PST]

Just came across this website which appears to be sorely in need of a "funny filter" - don't know what to make of this piece mixed in with all that death. A screen shot is provided below, as hopefully it will quickly roll off the first page or someone will delete it.]


Click to enlarge

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[UPDATE - Saturday 12/3 - 6:00 AM PST]

This also made it into the legal section at Topix.net:


Click to enlarge

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Forget history and repeat it!
Gold is backed by creation, Dollars are backed by aggrssion. Dollars chase everyting and slaves chase Dollars. Slaves buy Dollar inflated assets at the top, loose value, and remain slaves. Repeat.

Anonymous said...

Mouse-minimizing solution for you, Tim . . . download the free Kcast beta from Kitco and it will display the PM prices in your system tray and update each few seconds or minutes as you choose.

I've been using it a few weeks now and it works great!

john_law_the_II said...

I think buyin gold at these prices is like buying the dow when it went from 1,000 to 2,000. in other words, I think we're in a secular uptrend.

Anonymous said...

The entire US Economy consists of multiple bubbles in the stock market, bonds, and real estate. In order to prevent a deflationary collapse of these bubbles, the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to maintain inflated asset prices. The Greenspan Federal Reserve is like a bad joke.

Anonymous said...

This story was on the front page of Yahoo! just a little while ago:

Gold hits over $505 to 23-year high
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051202/bs_nm/markets_precious_dc

"The investment money sees an environment where gold is an interesting alternative investment. Diversification is the key these days. The fundamentals are very good on gold."

Seems to be more mainstream every day.

Anonymous said...

Some time ago I recall reading somewhere, maybe on this site, a rhetorical question to the effect of: "Now that the tech boom is over, and once the housing bubble busts, what will be the next bubble?"

Gold over $500? -- hmmm.

john_law_the_II said...

gold is a bubble at $5,000, not $500.

Anonymous said...

As you allude to the effect of the M3 reporting discontinuance upon gold, Tim -- did you happen to notice that the Fed's 12/01 release shows that M3 popped up 42.7 billion for the current reporting week to (11/21)?

Anonymous said...

Hey, this Kitco in the tray thing is nice!

Tim said...

I just added another Topix.net page - funny and weird at the same time!

anon 7:55:
I tried an early version of the tray thingy a while back ago and it didn't work very well - they must have been working the bugs out - maybe I'll try it again.

anon 1:17:
The M3 numbers will get lots of scrutiny in the coming months - I'll take a look at it again in a week or so and whip up a chart if it looks interesting.

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