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Fed: Cooling of Housing Market No Longer Gradual
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Some people will pick over every word of a carefully crafted prepared statement looking for some sort of insignificant change that can be interpreted as some sort of profound shift in outlook, then write a titillating headline implying a view that the author never intended...
Why, those people ought to be ...
6 comments:
It's impossible to say with any reasonable degree of certainty that your conclusion is unfair, however, given your usual playfulness with words, I'm not sure if the title reflects a conclusion at all. That's what makes this blog interesting to read - I'm never quite sure what you mean, and I am therefore forced to think for myself. Sometimes that is an uncomfortable feeling.
While you were away getting pretty pictures of the countryside, the Fed released the minutes from Aug 8th. They had plenty to say without using words like "gradual". Check this out:
"Fed Minutes from August 8 released today. Here’s the gist: Fed sees slowing economy
Slowing and cooling:
In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants noted that the slowing of GDP growth in the second quarter was generally in line with expectations, reflecting the continued cooling of the housing market, the restraining influence on demand of higher energy prices, and the lagged effects of past increases in interest rates
Continue to fall, slowing, and sharp fall:
Single-family housing starts and permits continued to fall, and inventories of unsold housing appeared to have risen significantly, pointing to continued slowing in this sector. Some participants observed that the slowing seemed to be orderly thus far, but it was also noted that in some areas of the country housing construction had experienced a relatively sharp fall.
Slowed:
Sales of both new and existing single-family homes slowed in June and were significantly below their peaks of the summer of 2005.
Continued slowing:
Contacts in the retail sector generally reported a continued slowing of growth in sales, although the situation differed somewhat by region and type of good or service.
Slowing continued:
However, it was noted that if the reported slowing of increases in retail sales continued, businesses might trim capital spending plans.
Slowed:
The growth of consumer spending slowed considerably in the second quarter after the surge in purchases around the turn of the year."
In the next set of minutes perhaps will see more words like "severe", "sharp", "steep." should be fun.
http://www.myunclejack.com/index.php/2006/08/29/bears-can-run-35-mph/
It's getting impressively uglier!
I'd also like to add that the PR guy/gal at the fed lacks creativity.
And, now that I've had my daily fix here, can anyone tell me what has happened to thehousingbubbleblog.com? Did the fed crash his site so his site of impressive news links on the bubble wouldn't be up when folks discussed these issues today?
Econbrowser has some nice charts that stongly suggest the current era with falling-off housing figures is a short prelude to one of those grey NBER recession smudges:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/09/watching_housin.html
It don't look so good, folks.
I'm curious how much of the housing burst is regional. I moved to Portland OR form the bay area to buy a house since the Bay Area prices had passed me by. Since my move only a year ago houses on three sides of me have gotten facelifts and one sold last week for $640,000 considerably more than its 14 month ago purchase price of $350,00 ( now that doesn't include improvements). Where else are folks from these areas to buy if thats what they really wan to do, i suggest that the rise of the exburbs and same flavor different state markets will remain stronger then the big gainers.
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