Wikinvest Wire

Steve Forbes on "liquidity"

Monday, August 13, 2007

Steve Forbes has routinely made provocative comments and bold prognostications over the years, not the least of which was a call for a return to $35 crude oil shortly after Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.

His recommendation that the Federal Reserve target the gold price instead of consumer prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has yet to be taken up by Ben Bernanke and crew, though he seems to hold out hope that it someday will.

A short time ago on CNBC, the one-time presidential candidate, best known for his "flat tax" proposal, made these comments on the Fed and their current "liquidity" problem (a word that, by year-end, may rival "subprime" as the most important part of the 2007 financial lexicon):

One of the things that the Fed's going to have to do in a few weeks is, finally - I hope Ben Bernanke undoes the legacy he inherited from Alan Greenspan which is excess liquidity creation in 2004 and 2005 and winds that down. The longer you see these commodities - like gold at $680 or $700 an ounce - that means there's too much liquidity out there.

If that liquidity is out there, then what we saw this week, in a few months I guarantee it's going to happen again. He's got to announce that they're soaking up the liquidity - forget about interest rates, soak up that excess liquidity, let people unwind their speculative positions so we avoid this kind of crisis.

If that money remains out there, the fire's going to start again.
While this may sound appealing in a theoretical sense, the actual implementation of this "liquidity extraction" might be a problem.

Since the U.S. economy is now largely based on unbridled speculation and an ever-expanding pile of credit and debt to push up one asset class or another (hopefully good ones like stocks and real estate rather than bad ones like commodities), it's hard to imagine that putting an end to the easy money - easy money that hundreds of millions of people have grown accustomed to after 18 years with Alan Greenspan at the controls - is going to be a practical solution.

While most level-headed thinkers would agree that this is indeed the course that should be taken, it is akin to solving the nation's obesity problem by making food more expensive, limiting the amount of food that people can buy, and demanding that the citizenry exercise.

The pain involved in implementing such a thing will simply be too much to bear.

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The pain involved in implementing such a thing will simply be too much to bear."

Is this the point where Tim "jumps the shark."

Tim said...

I think it's more a question of whether the Beranke-led Fed is about to jump the shark (see Wikipedia):

Jumping the shark is a metaphor for the tipping point at which a TV series passes its peak or introduces plot twists which are inconsistent with what has preceded them. Once a show has jumped the shark, the viewer senses a noticeable decline in quality or feels the show has undergone too many changes to retain its original charm. The term derives from an episode of Happy Days in which Fonzie jumped over a shark while on water skis.

There's a good deal of irony in that analogy when applied to the Fed.

Anonymous said...

on the subject of sharks.... Steve Forbes' eyes look like those of a great white sometimes

Anonymous said...

Errrmmmmmm..... You can call him "provocative" and "bold" if you want, but mention the name "Steve Forbes" to 95+% of informed people, and their first reactions will be "ignorant" and "loopy". Only a flaming ignoramus expects to see $35/bbl oil again.

Forbes is the perfect standard-bearer for our own developing aristocracy. Take a coddled, not especially bright offspring of a rich guy whose own claim to fame is mainly his own connections. By virtue of his last name and inherited bank account, put him in front of a microphone -- and stand by for hilarity! The best part of the joke is, the velvet yahoo won't even know when he's making a fool of himself.

Of course, it could be worse. Forbes was essentially a warm-up act for Bush the Lesser. Unfortunately, with that worthless shithead, the joke's on all of us.
-- sglover

Anonymous said...

i agree - bush is a worthless shithead. forbes has easy not so well thought out views that one would expect from one in such a pampered position.

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