The Mailman and the Housing Bubble
Monday, April 04, 2005
There is something to be said for traditional magazines delivered by regular mail - everyone should have a few magazine subscriptions. The daily anticipation of opening up your mailbox, retrieving, then examining the contents - odd sized envelopes, unruly junk mail, magazines ... there is something nostalgic and good about this daily ritual.
For many years, BusinessWeek has faithfully delivered their weekly recap of business news and insights to my mailbox - not once (in recent memory, at least) has it failed to arrive at its final destination. Most weeks it appears on Friday, sometimes Saturday - on a few rare occasions it has lingered, arriving on Monday ... but Monday delivery is quite unusual.
Late last week, through various internet sources, it became known to me that this week's cover story, After the Housing Boom, would shed light on some of the odd goings on in today's real estate markets. It is co-authored by one of my favorite BusinessWeek writers, Kathleen Madigan, who has been mentioned previously on this blog. After having peeked at the post-apocalyptic magazine cover online, a conscious decision was immediately made to resist the so-easily-obtained instant gratification made possible via the online edition, and to wait ... to savor this sure-to-be classic analysis in its more natural form.
Several hours ago, with heightened anticipation, I approached my mailbox, inserted the key, and let the door slowly swing open to reveal what appeared to be the usual assortment of items - yes, there was a magazine on the bottom ... the wait was worth it. Grabbing the bundle, securing the door, and turning for home, the items were casually inventoried with little doubt as to what lay at the bottom of the pile.
Now, National Parks Magazine is a fine publication, and the work that they are doing today should be commended in light of the resistance by our Federal Government to deficit-spend on anything worthwhile, but, given the expectations that had been building all weekend, this was, alas, another huge disappointment to be denied once again. Since Tuesday delivery is unprecedented, and because this ordeal had gone on long enough, it was time to acknowledge defeat. At some point, you must accept the fact that you are powerless over certain things - recourse will be pursued, but at least this ordeal is over.
My only hope after this experience, is that somehow, some good might have come from this situation - that perhaps my mailman spotted the bold cover story title and ominous cover artwork, then deftly stuffed the magazine in his lunch pail, only to study it carefully later. That maybe this would lead to a re-evaluation of a real estate purchase decision that he was about to make ... that maybe he would put his foot down with his slightly-too-emotional wife who has hopelessly fallen in love with Plan C in the new housing development down the road. That maybe he will reconsider the long term implications of their chosen financing - interest only, adjustable rate, 35 years ... that maybe he will think that $795,000 is too much money for a 2600 square foot home on a postage stamp size lot in an ordinary neighborhood.
Perhaps some good will come of this.
2 comments:
The negative press is snowballing. I'm loath to predict a slow deflation starting any time soon, as I've been saying it has to for about a year already, but this does remind me of the articles that started to pop up in 1999/2000 where people noticed that ebay's market cap was something like 1000 times its total revenues, and perhaps that couldn't be justified rationally.
Reality is starting to sink in.
Is Ebay's PE today justified? How about the entire U.S. stock market for that matter? This 'inflate or die' effort by the Federal Reserve and Fed Gvt. over the last 4 years has been an interesting display of trying to put-off the inevitable.....a deflationary event of the U.S. and world economy. The problem now is the debts are even greater than before 2000. Deflation is not a bad thing..it is an inevitable-natural necessity to reconcile previous-misguided monetary tinkering. The end is nay.
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