And ... we have another winner!

Today's closing prices for a barrel of oil and an ounce of gold were $79.36 and $1097, respectively, making BN the winner of the seventh "Guess the Price of Oil and Gold" contest by a narrow margin over Scepticus and RP who were in fourth and first place last week.
[Note: The scale in the chart above paints a somewhat misleading picture of the final results below as horizontal displacements in percentage terms are smaller than they appear.]

It was a fairly exciting contest in the final days as BN came out of nowhere, first appearing in the top ten last week in sixth place and then vaulting to the top spot after the oil price continued to rise and the gold price continued to fall. The complete top ten is shown below, KC moving up from fifth to fourth and oilcan dropping from second to fifth.
Yours truly finished a disappointing 28th after making a brief appearance in the top ten a few weeks ago, the first such appearance in a year or so after a string of top ten finishes.

Dan, you finished in a tie for 14th.

For full details about the contest, see this summary post from last month.

Recall that BN will now receive a free one year subscription to Iacono Research where the model portfolio will end the year up somewhere between 15 and 16 percent, better than the average hedge fund in 2009 but well back of the major stock indexes.

Does anyone know anyone who's been fully invested in stocks this year?

Thanks to all who participated - there will be a mid-year contest next year which should kick off sometime in April.

Congratulations BN - please send me mail so I can get an account set up for you.

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Oil and gold contest update #5

This is the final update for the sixth semi-annual "Guess the Price of Oil and Gold" contest prior to a winner being announced next Thursday and it's certainly been an interesting week or two for crude oil. Just when it looked like we were headed back to the $60-$70 a barrel range, now it looks like prices are headed to $80 or more and this causes another overhaul of the top ten list with just a few trading days to go.
In a holiday-shortened week, the price of crude oil finished at $78.05 a barrel and gold closed on Thursday at $1,104 an ounce, putting the current prices just below the average contest guesses of $80 for oil and $1,144 for gold.

With guesses of $75 and $1,101, that's RP snuggled up next to the most recently added yellow diamond with oilcan, CS, Scepticus, and KC not far behind and, as shown below, any big move up or down for the gold price will negatively affect RP's chances from here on out.
RP moved up from third place over the last week and APB, last week's leader, dropped seven places while GW, in second place last week, fell out of the top ten completely.

All tolled, there are seven new names in the top ten, PR being the third holdover dropping from fourth place to the ninth spot.

The pair of guesses ventured by yours truly is dropping like a rock in the standings. From the first appearance in the top ten in more than a year at number 7 two weeks ago, it has been a steady decline to position 16 and now the 28th spot.

For full details about the contest, see this summary post from last month.

Recall that the winner will be receive a free one year subscription to Iacono Research where it's shaping up to be a respectable year, the model portfolio now up almost 17 percent.

Good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Oil and gold contest update #4

With just eight full trading days left to go, there were more big moves last week in the top ten standings for the "Guess the year-end price of oil and gold" contest. Here's the latest data:
The price of crude oil surged from just under $70 a barrel to over $73 while gold declined modestly to $1,112.40 an ounce, though you wouldn't know that by looking at Wednesday and Thursday's price action where the metal plunged almost $50 in less than 24 hours.

The top ten spots are shown below - APB (All Points Bulletin? - you probably get that all the time) moved up from second place to first and GW rose from fourth the second while DEL fell from first to fifth place. New to the top ten this week are Ted S., RA, CG, and Tom C.
Yours truly apparently had his 15 minutes last week with an appearance in position 7 but tumbled about 10 places due to the rising oil price.

Recall that the winner will receive a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research , valued at $159, where the model portfolio saw a modest decline of 0.2 percent this week, still up almost 17 percent for the year.

There will be one more update next Friday and then a winner will be announced a week later, sometime around New Year's Eve or New Year's Day.

Good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Oil and gold contest update #3

With just under three weeks left to go before the end of the year, here's update number three for the suddenly, much more exciting "Guess the year-end price of oil and gold" contest.
After declining for the last three weeks, the price of crude oil, at $69.87 a barrel, is now well below the average contest guess of $70 a barrel. Similarly, gold's two week downturn leaves it at $1,115 an ounce today, well shy of the average guess of $1,144 an ounce.

The top ten spots are shown below - an entirely different group than last week for reasons that should be obvious - with DEL, APB, EEngineer, and GW occupying the top four positions with combined errors of less than four percent.
Yours truly vaulted from out of nowhere to position number 7, a big improvement over the last two contests where the top ten was never seen after doing quite well the previous three or four times. All things considered, I wouldn't mind being out of the top ten with those guesses - preferably a position on the chart well left of the yellow diamond indicating today's prices.

Recall that the winner will receive a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research , valued at $159, where the model portfolio had its first big down week in some time but still sports a respectable year-to-date gain of almost 17 percent.

There will be one more update next Friday and then a winner will be announced a week later, sometime around New Year's Eve or New Year's Day.

Good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Oil and gold contest update #2

This is update #2 for the year-end oil and gold contest with last week's relatively small move down and to the left belying the volatility that was seen in recent days.That's Ted S. snuggled up close to the recently added yellow diamond representing the closing prices for oil and gold yesterday - $75.47 a barrel and $1,161 an ounce, respectively.

Ted's combined error of about two percent (less than two percent when using the square root of the sum of the squares - or something like that - under the "Diff. Alt." heading in the table below) looks pretty darn good right about now, the only problem being that there are four weeks left to go. Something tells me that, by the end of the year, prices will be nowhere near Ted's guesses, especially for gold - what direction they'll head is anyone's guess.

The rest of the top ten are shown below with RA, CS, and PR not far back from the top spot.

Yours truly is in position #32 out of about 70 or so, far away from the action at the moment, but also far better than the performance last time around.

Recall that the winner receives a free one-year subscription to Iacono Research where the model portfolio had a modest setback of 0.3 percent last week but maintains a quite respectable gain of almost 21 percent for the year.

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Oil and gold contest update #1

This is update #1 for the year-end oil and gold contest and, over the last week, the little jog down and to the right in the graphic below clearly belies the market volatility seen in recent days as the previously soaring gold price plunged some $50 on Friday before staging a big recovery. Crude oil, on the other hand, has seemed like a one-way bet recently.
At this point, CS, RA, and frequent commenter Ted S. are in the top three spots, each with combined errors of less than four percent, but a lot can happen over the next five weeks. Note that CS's guesses are to the left and up a bit from the 11/28 yellow diamond reflecting the current $1,167 gold price and $76 price for a barrel of crude oil. Since the x- and y-scales are different in magnitude, vertical and horizontal distances are not equal in percentage terms.

Recall that the winner will receive a free one-year subscription to Iacono Research (where the model portfolio now sports a year-to-date gain of 21.1 percent) and complete details about this contest can be found in the links within this post from about a week ago.

Good luck to all!

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Oil and gold contest - the fun begins

Entries for the 2009 edition of the "Guess the Year-End Price of Oil and Gold" contest have been tabulated and they now appear in the chart and tables below.
There were a total of 70 entries with average guesses of $80 for a barrel of oil and $1,144 for an ounce of gold (this compares to average guesses of $81 and $918 for the last contest).

For oil, the high/low range was $100/$50 and, for gold, the range was $1,450/$620.

All individual guesses appear in the tables below - if something looks amiss, please let me know (this is a manual process, prone to error). All entries received via email use the sender's initials unless directed otherwise - you should be able locate your guess based on when and how it was made:

From the November 10th post:

From the November 17th post:
From the November 19th post:
From Yahoo! Mail:

From Iacono Research mail:
The graphic at the top of this post will be updated every week, usually on Fridays, until the contest concludes on New Years Eve.

Good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
To begin a subscription, click here.

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Oil and gold contest - last day for entries!

Today is the last day for entries in the seventh installment of the semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold" contest - be sure to get your guesses in by midnight PST today or they will not be accepted. Here's one last look at the historical chart:
A free one-year subscription to the investment website Iacono Research (a value of $159) will be awarded to the contestant with the lowest combined percentage error between their guesses and the prices for these two important commodities at the end of the year.

For full contest details and all entries that have been submitted so far, see these two previous items from last week and earlier this week. Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post (or either of the prior two posts above) or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com.

The winner will be announced on December 31st - good luck to all!

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Guess the year-end price of oil and gold!

There are only a few days left for readers to enter their year-end guesses for the seventh installment of the semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold contest" where the lucky winner will receive a free one-year subscription to the Iacono Research investment website.

Past contests have produced the following results:
Since the guessing began a week ago, that yellow diamond indicating the current price of oil and gold has moved a full $40 to the right.

Though the price moves during the first half of the year were dominated by rising crude oil, so far, the second half of the year is all about the gold price.

Who knows where it'll be in another six weeks.

The last contest was won by ycching at mid-year in a hard fought battle to the end.
In graphic form, you can see that, despite a number of bold calls for gold, there wasn't a whole lot of movement while the contest was underway.

Interestingly, that handful of off-the-chart guesses for gold don't look all that wacky this time around. Apparently, $1,200 an ounce wasn't wacky at all - just premature.
This time around the rules are the same as they've always been - the contest is based on the combined percentage differences between the guessed values and the closing prices on December 31st, 2009 using the near-month (February) Nymex futures contract for WTI crude oil and the COMEX closing bid price for gold bullion.

Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com.

All entries must be received no later than Thursday, Nov. 19th

There will be one more notice on Thursday before entries close and current subscribers can win a free one-year extension to their existing subscription should their guesses be the closest.

The winner will be announced on December 31st - good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

Guess the year-end price of oil and gold!

Welcome to the seventh (wow!) semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold contest" where readers can compete to win a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research by providing the closest combined guesses for the year-end price of crude oil and gold. Past contests have produced the following results:
That was quite a move to the right over the last few months and, looking back over the last few years, with the obvious exception of the late-2008 meltdown in the price of oil, the overall direction has been decidedly up and to the right.

Also note that the biggest moves tend to occur during the second half of the year - another one now clearly underway.

The last contest was won by ycching who is now enjoying the benefits of the subscription site, the results of that contest shown in the graphic below.
Your host is hopefully at the end of a cold spell, having come in 70th place and then 68th place during the last two contests. This follows a string of three top tens, so, the potential is clearly there. [Note: If I ever did win this thing, I'd get braggin' rights only and the second place finisher would receive the first place prize.]

This time around the rules are the same as they've always been.

The contest is based on the combined percentage differences between the guessed values and the closing prices on December 31st, 2009 using the near-month (February) Nymex futures contract for WTI crude oil and the COMEX closing bid price for gold bullion.

Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com.

All entries must be received no later than Thursday, Nov. 19th

Sorry about the short window, but I'm getting a late start.

There will be two more notices such as this one as reminders and current subscribers can win a free one-year extension to their existing subscription should their guesses be the closest.

The winner will be announced on December 31st - good luck to all!

###

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs,
stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research.
For subscription details, click here.

Read more...

What now?

[Following are excerpts from last week's commentary at Iacono Research discussing the raft of sales for model portfolio positions executed the week before.]

ooo

...
First and foremost, it's important to remember that it has been just one week - five trading days - since a good portion of the model portfolio was transformed from various investments in stocks and commodities into cash. In the broad scheme of things, that represents an almost insignificant amount of time and, though it may not feel that way right now, money.
The decision to make these sales had been contemplated for a few weeks after markets had made their highs in late-May and early-June after having moved up from the March lows. Talk of "green shoots" had investors of all stripes wanting to "get back in" so as to make up for some of the losses that were handed to them last year and prices had been bid much higher.

Meredith Whitney Leads the Reversal
What we've seen since spring has been a very strong "bear market rally" (clearly, we haven't been in a primary bull market for stocks since 2000) and after faltering during the month of June, many technical levels being threatened or exceeded in just the last week or two, some analysts (including myself) felt the odds did not favor broad continued exposure to stocks and commodities at this time and took action.

As it turned out, the gloomy mood in June and early-July all changed last Monday when bank analyst Meredith Whitney set the stage for a big reversal in equity markets by fawning over Goldman Sachs' second quarter earnings report that were no less than "blockbuster" when they were released on Tuesday. Her comments alone are believed to have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about four percent. Then, after markets closed on Tuesday, Intel raised their guidance for the third quarter and this was followed by a stellar earnings report from JP Morgan on Thursday. Citibank and Bank of America followed suit on Friday, all of this compelling investors to put aside whatever reservations they had over the prior month and start buying stocks again.

Equities, commodities, and nearly every other asset class rose while safe have bets such as Treasuries saw fewer buyers and, at least for the week, there was a sense that everything was back to normal - that stocks were not about to retest the March lows and that the "June swoon" was an aberration, one that was promptly corrected.
A handful of economic reports created some very positive sounding headlines, thus adding to the renewed optimism:

- retail sales rose (but the gain was due entirely to higher gas prices and auto sales)
- jobless claims fell (but odd seasonal adjustments belied the underlying trend)
- housing starts improved (but they are still far below the worst pre-2008 levels)

In each case, there was much more to the story than the headline, none of it positive.

This was exactly the combination of news and events that were needed in order for equity markets to pull up out of their recent funk and that's exactly what they did. If someone were to have written a script - a sequence of events to help the stock market avoid plunging through major technical support levels - they couldn't have done a better job than what was seen throughout the week last week.

To top it all off, Nouriel Roubini, one who has had a dim view of things for years (and has been far more accurate than most forecasters), was reported to have said that the recession would be over by the end of the year and this news was touted on CNBC for hours. Roubini loudly announced that he had been misquoted, but the impact had already been made - the bears had turned bullish and the skies had cleared.

But, have the skies really cleared?

A closer look at the bank earnings tells a story that most stock investors probably don't want to hear.

No Recovery for "Traditional" Banking
The combined $10+ billion in second quarter profits reported by industry titans Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America did not arise from the traditional business of bank lending that might indicate Main Street is doing better, but, rather, from the business of Wall Street - trading operations, investment banking, and asset sales.

At Goldman Sachs, controversy continues to swirl about possible market manipulation due to a trading desk that accounts for an inordinate share of all transactions on the New York Stock Exchange, recent revelations of stolen software by a key trader shedding some much needed light on how the company dominates trading across many markets. They have recently been the subject of some scathing press and the outsized bonuses announced last week may yet have big repercussions as unemployment continues to rise and the outlook for Main Street and Wall Street diverge dramatically.

While JP Morgan collected record fees from trading and underwriting stocks and bonds (they are a primary dealer for U.S. Treasuries, a sector that saw brisk business over the last three months), revenue and profit in some of their key consumer and investment banking businesses were down from the first quarter and loan losses rose another $2 billion to $30 billion, a clear indication that consumer lending is getting worse and not better.

At Bank of America, the bottom line benefited from a wave of mortgage refinancings as interest rates dipped to historic lows, however, loan loss provisions increased by $13.4 billion and CEO Ken Lewis was less than giddy about the outlook for the second half of the year, noting, "Profitability in the second half of the year will be much tougher than the first half." A large portion of the profits at BofA during the second quarter came from trading at Merrill Lynch, acquired last year, and, at Citigroup, the bulk of their second quarter profits came from the sale of the Smith Barney brokerage.

Even with freakishly low short-term interest rates, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup all lost money on the traditional banking business of lending money and will likely continue to do so until there are improvements in the labor market, the housing market, and the commercial real estate market. While a bottom in investment banking may now be behind us, the worst is yet to come for credit card delinquencies, mortgage defaults, and small to mid-size banks where exposure to commercial real estate remains quite high.

At a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Thursday, Senator Jim Bunning (R-Kentucky) related a comment by FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair that another 500 banks could fail.

In my view, the bigger picture is unchanged - the spring stock market rally, reinvigorated as it was by bank earnings, is on borrowed time and, sometime this year there is likely to be another leg down for equities, testing the March lows and maybe worse.

That was the primary reason for taking dramatic action a week ago and, after looking inside both the recent bank earnings and economic reports, that assessment has not changed.

In the fullness of time, we will see how this all works out - one week does not make a financial market recovery or an economic recovery.

A Look Back at the Last Eighteen Months
But, for those of you who made sales similar to those executed for the model portfolio last week, how do you deal with this? After all, markets are very much based on momentum and there has clearly been a big shift in momentum over the last week, the losses in broad equity markets incurred over the prior four weeks being wiped out by just five days of gains. The recent move up was a powerful one to be sure and it's quite possible that the stage has been set for another leg up, not down, in the near-term during what are usually lightly-traded summer months.

Well, the first and most obvious thing to look at is the history of the last eighteen months because there is a compelling comparison that is quite easy to make, one that is very telling. As indicated by the red arrow in the graphic below, though the partial sales of model portfolio positions made early last year looked ill-advised for months, in the end they were quite prudent and prevented even worse losses for 2008.
While I'm not expecting another late-2008 stock market melt-down this year (although anything is possible), we are about to enter what has been, historically, the worst time of the year for equity markets and neither the economy or company earnings are anywhere near as good as most investors would like to think that they are. Moreover, there are a host of negative factors that, at some point, will impact investors' attitudes.

The success story of 2009 so far - China - has a stock market that is increasingly viewed as a bubble about to burst as more than $100 billion in bank lending so far this year is said to have gone to purchase shares. Despite calls by the government to restrain lending, banks doubled the amount of loans made from May to June and government officials are now planning to restrict credit growth in order to "prevent China's economic recovery from being hijacked by unchecked speculations on assets", according to one central bank official. Last week, economic growth during the second quarter was reported to be 7.9 percent and, with massive infrastructure projects now underway, their economy may continue to expand, but that doesn't necessarily mean that share prices will continue to rise.

The top lender to small and medium sized businesses in the U.S. with some $75 billion in assets - CIT Group - may file for bankruptcy and this will have an unpredictable impact on financial markets. The U.S. government has spurned their requests for a bailout and this is being offered up as a test of how much the financial system has recovered in recent months - whether it can stand the shock this is likely to produce.

The labor market woes continued last week as state unemployment rose across the country, the jobless rate in Michigan now at 15.2 percent, the first time in 25 years that a state has recorded an unemployment rate in excess of 15 percent. The conventional thinking that the labor market is a lagging indicator will soon to be put to the test as the employment situation shows no signs of improving, though it continues to worsen at a slower pace.

On Friday, I caught Larry Kudlow on CNBC for just a few minutes and he was heralding the steep drop in weekly jobless claims as being proof that the recovery was now underway. Naturally, he failed to mention the impact of seasonal adjustments and went on to say something about "don't look a gift horse in the mouth" when referring to the recent stock market rally.

It's important to understand that most people desperately want conditions to improve - we are optimistic by nature and media outlets such as CNBC and a good portion of the financial press are only too willing to spin the news in that direction.

It is quite possible (if not likely) that, after the events of the last week, equity markets will continue to go higher for some period of time. While that will make last week's sales look and feel increasingly worse, I remain comfortable with the decision that was made as it relates to both the model portfolio and my personal accounts.

An ideal decision? No. A prudent decision? Yes.

Over the past eighteen months, we have clearly entered a new era for investing, but, it seems that most people are still expecting a speedy return to the ways of old. Just last month, Money Magazine ran a story about how to "make back" the losses suffered over the last year citing a study that provided three scenarios for future returns - slow, fast, and faster.

The rates of return for slow, fast, and faster were 5.5 percent, 9.6 percent, and 12.8 percent!

While there may be even more angst in the period ahead over last week's sales, the fact that a respectable gain for 2009 is now virtually assured makes me feel a little bit better about things. The downside has been limited and there remains a huge potential upside for the remaining positions.
...

ooo

[Note: Subscriber RN sent a link to this story with recent comments by Dr. Marc Faber advising "investor vacations" over the summer. It seems I was in good company.]

ooo

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Iacono Research "Free Trials" end today!

As part of a long overdue and ongoing makeover now underway over at the companion investment website Iacono Research, the 30-Day Free Trials that have been quite popular over the last few years are being brought to an end TODAY.

For those of you who may be interested in having a month-long, no-obligation, absolutely-free look around the website, I'd like to invite you to do so by following the simple instructions on the sign up page before midnight tonight.

It's free. There is no obligation to purchase anything. And it won't be available again.

What have you got to lose?

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Iacono Research "Free Trials" end this week

It was by no means planned this way, but, as shown in the image to the right, it just so happens that Free Trials at the companion investment website Iacono Research are coming to an end during a rather momentous week.

The latest Weekend Update, published just yesterday, details the most dramatic changes ever made to the Iacono Research model portfolio since the newsletter's inception three and a half years ago.

As noted last week, as part of a long overdue and ongoing makeover at the investment site, the 30-Day Free Trials that have been quite popular over the last few years are being brought to an end on Thursday of this week.

But, the good news is that you can still get one. To see just what went on there over the weekend, and for a free month-long, no-obligation, absolutely-free look around the website, all you have to do is follow the simple instructions on the sign up page before this offer ends on Thursday.

It's free. There's no obligation. And it won't be available ever again.

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Iacono Research "Free Trials" end next week

As part of a long overdue and ongoing makeover now underway over at the companion investment website Iacono Research, the 30-Day Free Trials that have been quite popular over the last few years are being brought to an end one week from tomorrow.

For those of you who may be interested in having a month-long, no-obligation, absolutely-free look around the website, I'd like to invite you to do so by following the simple instructions on the sign up page before this offer ends next week.

Since only one free trial per person is allowed, unless it's been a couple of years since your last one, I'm sorry, but you're going to be out of luck (last week someone requested a third free trial after slipping through somehow on a second one about six months ago!!).

Anyway, it's free. There's no obligation. And it won't be available after next week.

What have you got to lose?

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And ... we have another winner!

Today's closing prices for a barrel of oil and an ounce of gold were $69.89 and $926.60, respectively, making ycching the winner of the sixth "Guess the Price of Oil and Gold" contest by a narrow margin over jlowey and Bruno T.
In first place for the last three weeks as prices moved very little, ycching wins a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research.

Sadly, the Inscrutible Chicken came up short in his late move toward the top, finishing fourth.

Better cluck next time...

A list of the top-ten finishers (out of over 80 guesses) is shown below. Interestingly, the type of calculation makes a difference for the second and third place finishers, but not for the top spot (i.e., the "Diff. Alt." column is a square root of the sum of the squares calculation versus the simple sum of the percent differences in the "Total Diff." column).
The average guesses of $59 for a barrel of oil and $936 for an ounce of gold were off by a total of almost 16 percent and, during the almost two months that the contest went on, the oil price rose from just under $60 a barrel to almost $70 and the gold price moved up about five dollars from around $920 an ounce.

Ycching, please send me your email address and I'll get an account set up for you.

Thanks to all who participated.

There should be a much more exciting year-end edition of this contest set to kick off sometime in October. With the notable exception of 2008, as the oil price was heading toward almost $150 a barrel in June, the year-end editions have always been much more exciting than the mid-year editions due to generally larger price moves.

To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs, stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research. Or, sign up for a free trial.

Read more...