Fed Chair Heir Wild Card

With today's jobs report pretty much a bust for its news value - everyone now knows that non-farm payrolls decreased by 35,000 in September, but due to Hurricane Katrina and consequent BLS reporting oddities, no one seems to know how the number was calculated or what it means - we turn our attention to the White House, where the selection process for a new Federal Reserve Chairman continues.

Or, that's what we are led to believe. This was the exchange from President Bush's press conference on Tuesday:

QUESTION: It may be a little early for this, but now that you've gotten your deliberations for the Supreme Court vacancy out of the way, can you talk about the process you're going to use for determining the next chairman of the Federal Reserve?

BUSH: Yes. It's ongoing, by the way. There is a group of people inside the White House who are bringing forth -- who will bring forth nominees.

The nominees will be people that, one, obviously can do the job and, secondly, will be independent.

It's important that whomever I pick is viewed as an independent person from politics. It's this independence of the Fed that gives people, not only here in America but the world, confidence.

And so there's an ongoing process. Right now, I, frankly, hadn't seen any -- personally hadn't seen any names yet because part of the process is to surface some names internally but also part of the process is to reach outside the White House and solicit opinions.

And I'll name the person at an appropriate time.

A group of people either "are bringing forth" or "will bring forth" nominees - this being, apparently, "part of the process to surface names internally". The key element of this process appears to be finding people who "obviously can do the job", obviously - lessons learned from the Katrina-FEMA-Michael Brown debacle we guess. And, independence, that's important too - we're not so sure how "independent" the current Fed Chairman has been, but that's a story for another day.

According to this Forbes article, Vice President Dick Cheney, Chief of Staff Andrew Card, and Karl Rove are currently deliberating over whose names to put on the short list. We can imagine Ben Bernanke pacing the halls, occasionally checking in to see if "the guys" need any coffee or doughnuts - trying not to be a bother, but making sure they know he is there.

Also in the Forbes article is this excerpt - a rather innocuous looking paragraph and a seemingly harmless link, but what a surprise to see where the link goes. Just what kind of shoes are they referring to?

Not to mention the fact that Greenspan leaves big shoes to fill: Soon to be the longest serving Fed chairman ever, he maneuvered the economy through two stock market collapses, two recessions and presided between them over the longest expansions in U.S. history. And he plays a mean sax.

In case your didn't see for yourself, we'll tell you - the above link goes to an article titled "World on the Brink of Ruin", by Dan Ackman, who has penned many interesting doom-and-gloom articles over at Forbes. Either someone over there really has a sense of humor, or this is a not-so-subtle jab at the outgoing Fed Chairman, or both.

But back to today's topic, with everything else that's going on, how much time can the top White House staff be spending deliberating over possible nominees? Let's see, is there anything in the news recently that might in any way impede this effort? Is there anything going on that would possibly distract from this important effort to fill the position that many refer to as the second-most powerful position in the United States?

The Polls
Poll: Bush Ratings Hit New Low

Iraq
U.S. 'Lacks Moral Authority' In Iraq
Iraq Withdrawal 'Catastrophic'
Bush claimed God told him to invade Iraq, Afghanistan: BBC

Terrorism
New York subway under specific threat: mayor

Avian/Pandemic Influenza
Nations to Discuss Potential Flu Pandemic

Hurricane Aftermath
Katrina Contracts Will Be Reopened
No-Bid Deals Questioned on Hill
GOP Divided Over Range and Severity of Spending Cuts

The Valerie Plame Investigation
Rove Said to Testify in CIA Leak Case
FBI Examines Computers in Cheney's Office

The Harriet Miers Nomination
Conservatives Confront Bush Aides
Anger Over Nomination of Miers Boils Over During Private Meetings

Tom Delay
DeLay Meeting, RNC Actions Coincided
Financial Transactions Began on Day Texan Met With Fundraiser

Bill Frist
Frist Sale of Stock Launched in April
Senator and Advisers Discussed It in E-Mail

There is so much going on at the White House these days that it's really hard to imagine that there has been much of a discussion about who should succeed current Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan when he retires in January. It's important, when asked, to leave the impression that this is one of the top priorities within the White House, but let's be realistic.

Some have probably read the papers and discovered that Glenn Hubbard, Martin Feldstein, and Ben Bernanke are the names on the financial media short list, and that's a good first step (imagine Cheney grumbling, "Bernanke, isn't that the guy that keeps wanting to get us coffee and doughnuts?). But, with sagging poll numbers, two Iraqi elections coming up, terrorism threats, a possible flu pandemic, and continuing unrest within the party ranks over the many recent "bumps in the road" ... when it comes to selecting a new Fed Chairman, how can they possibly have time to do anything more than read the papers?

We know very little about this selection process, but feel an overwhelming compulsion to speculate ...

If history is a guide, the nominee will be, first and foremost, loyal to the White House. Independence, shmindependence - these are not normal times. Secondly, due to the Cheney-Miers precedent, where the head of the selection committee ends up selecting themselves, do not rule out Andrew Card - his name was floated some time ago when they were thinking of dumping current Treasury Secretary and uber-salesman John Snow.

Cheney and Rove can be ruled out for obvious reasons, but if Andrew Card is the head of the selection committee, watch out. He can do the job, obviously (that is obvious, isn't it?), and once he leaves the White House, he'll be independent. Plus in another month or two, with all the crises he is currently managing, he may mistakenly view saving the world economy from imploding as a far easier task than to continue his current employment.

The only other real possibility is Ben Bernanke, and his fate really depends on how he is currently perceived over at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue - loyalty-wise. He's been there for most of the year, and he has faithfully included key components of White House policy in some of his speeches since joining the team, but was that enough? Has he sufficiently proven his loyalty? We'll see.

Our money is on wild card Andrew Card.