Wikinvest Wire

A Good Week for PMs

Friday, February 09, 2007

The price of crude oil finished the week about where it began, but precious metals had a fine week. Make that five fine weeks in a row - going all the way back to the big sell off during the first week of the year.

You'd never know it from reading the mainstream financial media, but gold has slowly climbed back to within shouting distance of the $700 mark (it would have to be a very loud shout).

A few Federal Reserve Presidents have noticed and they're starting up with their inflation hawk talk once again - the talk of IMF gold sales didn't have the intended effect, apparently.
The gold miners just can't do much in the new year - while the price of gold has now risen almost five percent, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up half of one percent.

Oil ended slightly higher than where it began the week but other energy commodities were on the move - always volatile natural gas rose five percent while gasoline and heating oil climbed just over two percent.
The big oil companies moved lower along with the broad equity markets.
The dollar continues to tread water at around 85 on the U.S. Dollar Index. There's a big G7 meeting this weekend where the U.S. is going to tell the Europeans that the Yen is fairly valued - the finance ministers on 'the continent' disagree.

How many years has Japan had short-term interest rates below one percent? With a budget deficit greater than their GDP?
The model portfolio at the companion website Iacono Research is now firmly in positive territory in the new year with a +2.7 percent year-to-date gain.

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4 comments:

Aaron Krowne said...

Unfortunately Japan's rut is politically-convenient:

- the low interest rates actually fan the flames of government borrowing
- the flight out of Yen suppresses the currency and helps politically-influential exporters
- US financial overlords like carry-trading on the Yen, and so have kept enormous pressure on their Japanese supplicants

But like all interventionist arrangements, it will give. Probably soon. I give it a half year, tops.

Anonymous said...

I feel sorry for all the people who believe all the crap they hear from wall street and have 30 pct in large cap, 20 pct in mid cap, 20 pct in small cap, 10 pct in foreign and 20pct in bonds ----- over the long haul they're gonna get killed-- buy PMs and buy them now

Anonymous said...

Why would the gold miners move less than the metal itself? It was my basic understanding that the miners tended to move in the same direction, but in a larger fashion.
Josh

Tim said...

Gold mining stocks are still stocks and they often times move with the broader stock market or for other reasons having nothing to do with the price of gold.

There's a good chart at my website showing how different investment categories have performed over the last five years (the third chart down - I think I'll go update those charts to include 2006).

For example, in 2004, the gold price rose 5 percent and the gold bugs mining index fell 10 percent.

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