Wikinvest Wire

Yes, It Can Get Better

Friday, February 23, 2007

Last Friday afternoon, the question was asked, Can it Get Any Better than This? It is clear today, that the answer is yes. What will next week hold? We'll find out soon enough.

While the Dow was down about one percent and the Nasdaq rose by an equal amount, commodity markets posted their strongest gains in almost three months. The CRB Index was up almost three percent, copper rising almost eight percent while energy prices rose more than four percent.

Crude oil finished the week clear of the $60 mark, rising to its highest level of the year on speculation that inventories will plunge after refineries shut down for annual maintenance in the month ahead. Reports of an acceleration in Iran's uranium enrichment program didn't hurt the oil price either.


Oil stocks rose modestly. With gasoline prices rising slowly but surely, pain at the pump leading to complaints to congressmen about oil company price gouging are all becoming part of a new annual spring ritual.


The slow steady climb continues. Shhhh...


There has been some movement in gold stocks over the last week. Apparently investors are impressed with the slow and steady rise in metal prices and don't want to miss the next surge in share prices.


And the dollar has found a new range on the U.S. Dollar Index with which it is getting comfortable - 84. It spent about six weeks at 85 and now has spent the better part of the last two weeks at 84. With higher oil prices and a higher trade deficit and a weakening economy and ... well, you know what might eventually happen.


It would be much more worrisome if there were even a whiff of a mania in the air like there was last spring. That may happen soon enough.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tim,

You might want to check out Adam Hamilton's article comparing the CCI to the CRB. The CCI is actually a better long term measure of rising aggregate commodity prices, while the CRB is now more oil-weighted than it used to be.

http://zealllc.com/2007/ccicrb.htm

JimDesu said...

Shhh indeed on the gold price!

The last thing I want is for gold to become "popular" before I've accumulated a position. :)

Tim said...

apollo,

I read the Zeal article and I remember when they changed the CRB in 2005. I don't know that I really agree with his argument - an index where orange juice counts the same as oil doesn't really represent commodity markets better than a production weighted one. The timing of changes like CRB9 to CRB10 are always a question though.

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