Boinggg!!!
Friday, March 23, 2007
Just about everything went up this week - stocks, commodities, long-term interest rates, new and existing home sales. Home prices probably went down but the share prices for some of the bigger lenders with exposure to subprime mortgages rebounded.
It looks like investors are shrugging off the subprime mess already.
All the major U.S. indexes had healthy gains for the week. For the year, the Dow is now up 0.1 percent, the S&P500 has gained 1.3 percent, and the Nasdaq is up 1.4 percent. The model portfolio at Iacono Research is now up 3.6 percent year-to-date, much of this attributable to energy stocks that have risen rapidly in recent weeks.
Speaking of energy, look what's back up over $62.
Oil stocks had a good week, up almost seven percent. Once again, energy shares have pulled ahead of the major U.S. indexes having risen just over three percent on the year.
G0ld is struggling after having been beaten back from the $690 level a few weeks back. It's slogging through the mid-$600s again and Friday's better than expected home sales report knocked it back almost $8 after breaching the $660 level again. If nothing else, the metal is patient - those holding the metal must be patient too.
Gold mining stocks climbed one percent on the week and continue to tread water 12 weeks into the new year. As a group, they are within two-tenths of one percent from where they began the year. Gold prices will have to go higher for the mining equities to move up, that is, unless the gold miners are mining uranium which looks ready to break through the $100/lb mark sometime soon.
The one month chart of the dollar below shows the recent decline and rebound. People start getting nervous when the dollar starts getting close to 80 on the U.S. Dollar Index. Look for more nervousness in the months to come as the long-term trend certainly appears to be down - maybe a lot. It was reported earlier today that Iran is selling 60 percent of its oil in currencies other than the dollar - that should help put dollar hegemony to test, at least a little.
Again, nothing broke during the week and almost a month after the February sell-off and ten days clear of the March 13th scare, investors are getting giddy again. Let's hope that an "every other Tuesday" pattern has not developed with another wake-up call due on the 27th.
Disclosure: No position in XLE or GDX.
2 comments:
Of course they are simply de-emphasizing the negative... oldest trick in the book.
But The Man On The Street knows all is not well... he cannot sell his house or extract more home equity. Or he's waiting patiently in the wings to buy later.
Gold seems the best bet for the patient bear. Without inherently risky leverage, the returns on shorting the S&P, NASDAQ, Dow or whatever are all arithmetic. Even with a catastrophic drop, you get less than a double. Gold on the other hand offers the possibility of returns that are truly geometric. An inflation-adjusted return to its all time high is more than a triple.
Disclosure: I am long gold via the ETF GLD.
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