China's Military Buildup

The first day of April will mark the six-year anniversary of the Hainan Island Incident in which a U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane, flying in international waters, was intercepted by military aircraft from the naval branch of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

During the encounter, one plane bumped into another, one of the Chinese fighters crashed, and the U.S. spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan Island. Following procedure, the 24 crew members destroyed sensitive equipment prior to landing and once on the ground, the plane was boarded and the crew shuffled off to a military barracks where they were interrogated.

Eleven days later, after sometimes tense negotiations, the crew was released, however, the disassembled spy plane was not returned until months later.

Naturally, the events of September 2001 make this incident all the more difficult to recall, but thinking back on George W. Bush's first international crisis in light of China's recently announced military spending plans provides an uncomfortable reminder of how much the world has changed in just six years.

With the astonishing buildup of largely U.S. Dollar denominated foreign exchange reserves combined with their first manned space flight and the somewhat reckless shooting down of their own weather satellite with a ground-based missile, the Chinese military has taken on much greater significance in the global balance of power.

The team of Chinese government officials scouring the globe, buying infrastructure and forming partnership agreements to secure steady supplies of natural resources complicates the new world view further. If activity in Sudan is any example, the Chinese government clearly employs a different set of standards than that to which the West has become accustomed.

A review of some recent news stories sheds additional light on these developments. This story is sure to take on added significance over time.

Over the weekend, ChinaDaily reported on the country's new defense budget:

China's defense budget for 2007 is expected to hit 350.921 billion yuan (44.94 billion U.S. dollars), 17.8 percent higher than that last year, a spokesman for China's top legislature's annual session said in Beijing Sunday.
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"China won't pose a threat to any country, as it does not intend nor has the capacity to seek arms races against other countries," he added.
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The United States has repeatedly said it does not believe China 's figures and doubts that China has spent more than what is reflected in the budget.
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"All facts prove that China's increased military budget is used to enhance its defense capacity," Yao said, adding that it echoes the persistent stance China takes in following a defensive policy on military building and opposing hegemony and arms expansion.

On Monday, Chinese Premeir Wen Jiabao pledged a stronger military, also commenting on the eventual reunification with "break-away province" Taiwan:

Reflecting the increased focus on information technology in the People's Liberation Army, Wen also called for an improved ability to fight a "defensive IT war."

The White House said it was concerned over the increase in military spending, warning it was "inconsistent" with Beijing's policy of peaceful development.

"This kind of spending not only concerns us but raises concerns among China's neighbors. This is inconsistent with China's policy of peaceful development," said national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe.
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"Taiwan is part of our territory. That of course is a factor (in boosting defence spending), but it's not the only one... there are lots of factors threatening China, and they come from all corners."

Reunification with Taiwan is one of China's long-term objectives, and analysts have said Beijing is beefing up its military partly to enable it to take the island back by force if necessary.

Yesterday, an article($) in The Economist commented on the prospects of American involvement in a conflict between the two.

“Our aim,” says a senior Chinese diplomat, “is to win an information war in the Taiwan Strait.”

Some Chinese policymakers believe that if confronted with a fait accompli, America would lack the heart for a fight to liberate Taiwan. They point to opinion polls showing that a solid majority of Americans oppose using troops over Taiwan. Not wanting to see matters put to the test, the State Department was almost as critical of Mr Chen’s remarks as was China.

Meanwhile, the question of China's impact on global energy security was addressed by Ma Kai, the minister of the National Development and Reform Commission:

China's per capita oil consumption in 2005 is 242 kilograms, compared with the world average of 590 kilograms, over 3 tons in the US and 1.9 tons in Japan, noted Ma on the sidelines of the National People's Congress session.

For per capita oil import, the figure in China is 100 kilograms, 400 for the world average, 2.1 tons for the US and roughly 2 tons for Japan, added the minister.

"So I can't imagine why some people are saying that we, with a low consumption and import, pose a threat to global energy security, instead of those countries with high consumption and import, " said Ma. "It is unfair."

And in the U.S., the new Defense Secretary, clearly with more pressing issues on his mind, quickly dismissed concerns about the new Chinese military spending plans.

"I do not see China, at this point, as a strategic adversary of the United States," he said. "It's a partner in some respects, it's a competitor in other respects, and so we are simply watching to see what they're doing."

Gates also said: "I think it's very important for us to engage the Chinese on all facets of our relationship as a way of building mutual confidence."

Anyone who takes seriously the argument for potential global conflict in the years ahead over energy security will see the increased emphasis on defense spending in China as a troublesome development.

The fact that the government has banned new internet cafes for a year, citing growing problems with internet addiction and online gambling, should be troubling as well.