Economists are Sooo Optimistic

This survey($) of economists in today's Wall Street Journal seems to be at odds with itself. The consensus opinion of the 60 dismal thinkers polled points to spreading subprime problems and falling home price to go along with steady unemployment and no recession.

You have to cast some doubt on the assembled wisdom after reading that second paragraph - consumer confidence sentiment just plunged to a six month low this morning.

Most economic forecasters in a new WSJ.com survey believe recent turmoil in the subprime mortgage market is likely to spread to the broader mortgage market and they expect a widely followed index of home prices to fall this year. But they still think the U.S. will avoid a recession and even a significant rise in unemployment.

"The markets may have over-reacted," said John Lonski of Moody's Investors Service. "Only businesses significantly exposed to subprime will be hurt. Mortgage repayment problems aren't as widespread as we are led to believe. If most people were having trouble paying the mortgage, it would lead to declining consumer confidence and we haven't seen that."

Of the 60 economists surveyed, 32 said it is either "very" or "somewhat" likely that the intense and speedy unraveling of the market for subprime mortgages -- home loans made to people with poor credit histories – will spill over to the rest of the mortgage market.

But 26 said that's not likely. Two didn't respond.
...
But, as is often the case, there is disagreement among the economists about the risks that the subprime market poses to the overall U.S. economy.

"Mortgage credit-quality problems go well beyond the subprime sector," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, in a research note. "The underlying problem is not the subprime market per se, but the reset of large quantities of adjustable-rate debt -- some of which is classified as subprime some as prime -- to higher interest rates in an environment of flat or falling house prices in most of the United States."

Mr. Hatzius notes that the so-called teaser rate, or low initial rate on adjustable-rate mortgages, expires sooner for subprime mortgages. This implies that mortgage-holders with prime ARMs may come to experience the same woes currently making waves in the subprime sector.

The extent of any spillover from subprime to the broader housing market remains unclear. "You can tell a lot of scary stories," said Richard DeKaser of National City Corp., "but they're not broadly accurate. We're still talking about a small segment of the nation's homes that are affected." According to the American Housing Survey5 for 2005, the most recent date for which data are available, 33% of all homes are owned outright and 57% have traditional mortgages, leaving just 10% potentially affected by ARM woes.

The subprime concerns are also likely to weigh on prices, according to Mr. Lonski. "Home sellers will be forced to accept lower prices in the spring. The subprime issue reinforces that home prices would be subject to price recession, creating an expectation of lower prices among buyers."
...
The economists were split on whether regulators should have acted sooner in the subprime mortgage market. Twenty-eight of the respondents said "yes," while 24 said "no." Robert DiClemente of Citigroup contended that the problem wasn't centered on regulated institutions.

But some economists put part of the blame on the Federal Reserve. "Was it necessary to cut the fed funds rate to 1%, supercharging the housing recovery?" said Mr. Lonski. The June 2003 move, which ended a three-year cycle of rate cuts, was aimed at fostering economic growth and contributed to continued low mortgage rates.

Well, at least they're asking the right questions - short-term interest rates at one percent combined with lax regulation and Wall Street ingenuity have brought us to where we are today.

Should so many people be so surprised?

No one is really sure about what to expect next, but it sure has gotten interesting.