A Few Large Declines, Many Small Increases

The natural resource sector and things that aren't the U.S. Dollar continue to plod along nicely two weeks into the second quarter. So far in the new year, the plodding action has been occasionally interrupted by what feels like someone hitting a reset button, but then the plodding continues.

Aside from a tumultuous week #1 and an even more hair raising week #9, a well constructed portfolio of natural resource investments would have seen increases in the other thirteen weeks leading to hefty gains now in double digits.

While the major U.S. indexes struggle with low single digit gains for the year, the model portfolio at Iacono Research rose again this week, now up almost four percent on the month and ten percent on the year.

The price of crude oil has been resilient after Iran released the U.K. hostages but has gained only a few percent on the year. It increasingly looks like T. Boone Pickens might be right when he said seventy-five before fifty-five, but WTI crude sure is lagging other energy products in the new year - gasoline is up 35 percent, natural gas is up 24 percent, and heating oil is up 15 percent!


Oil companies are attracting the attention of investors even without sky-high oil prices. Lots of refinery problems have led to higher gasoline prices that have then led to higher stock prices - what a system.


The yellow metal looks like it's ready to test the February 26th high of $687 sometime next week. After that? Who knows. It's just a matter of time until we see $700 again, then it's on to the May 2006 high of $725, and then the technical analysts run out of charts.

Apparently, no one is sure what to do when the last resistance level is 27 years old, so everyone just buys - that's what happened last year.


The gold miners are awakening from their slumber, now up six percent on the year. This could get very interesting, very soon.


And the poor dollar just can't get a break. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has made clear that they're gonna be tough on inflation - why is everyone down on the dollar? The Associated Press reported yesterday that China's foreign currency reserves just hit $1.2 trillion. Everyone keep a cool head now - a rout in the dollar is in no one's best interests.

Rising prices at the pump are a lot easier to take when you have something elsewhere in your personal finances to offset the increase.