The week in charts
Friday, April 27, 2007
It was a big week for U.S. equities as the major stock indexes all climbed higher, the Dow once again making new all-time highs and the S&P500 threatening to do the same.
The natural resource sector was a mixed bag with energy prices rising and almost everything else falling back while the dollar once again plumbed new multi-year lows.
In the model portfolio at the companion website Iacono Research, there was a small loss on the week mostly as a result of lower metal prices. On the year, overall gains are still almost nine percent as the major U.S. stock indexes have just breached the five percent mark.
Oil rose late in the week on news of a foiled terrorist attack on Saudi oil fields - wholesale gasoline was up over 10 percent on the week.
Energy stocks continue to do well even though their profits are coming in a little lower than they did last summer. Wait until they report second quarter results - there are likely to be more congressional hearings on price gouging.
Gold, silver, copper, and other metals were smacked down pretty good yesterday - these metals are, however, exceedingly patient.
The gold miners look like they're headed back to sleep after the price of gold was turned back again in its assault on the $700 level. Gold miners and those who invest in them aren't nearly as patient as the metal.
And the dollar fell below 81.5 for the first time since 2004, looking ready to test the 80 level again - that GDP report this morning wasn't received well overseas.
Next week will bring the month of May, a time when some would suggest that investors exit positions, get out their beachwear, and stay away from markets until the fall. That wouldn't be any fun now would it? Just when things are starting to get interesting?
2 comments:
Gold will hit $700 next month. As George Tenent would say, it's a slam dunk.
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It’s Everywhere, In Everything: The First Truly Global Bubble
(Observations following a 6-week Round-the-World Trip)
Jeremy Grantham
How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000?
How about 36,000?
While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent.
One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham — the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.
Everything is in bubble territory, he says.
Everything.
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‘The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.’ — Jeremy Grantham
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“From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art,” he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, “from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it’s bubble time!”
“Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another,” he wrote. “Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that ‘they don’t make any more land,’ and that ‘with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,’ and ‘private equity will continue to drive the markets.’ ”
As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.
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