Wikinvest Wire

A good jobs report

Friday, June 01, 2007

Thank goodness for an aging population and a seemingly inexhaustible supply of money with which to pay for its medical costs. Health care has been the most consistent source of new employment for many years now and the trend remained intact with this morning's nonfarm payrolls data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 157,000 jobs were created in May, led by 36,000 new positions in health care and social assistance. Not far behind health care were the 34,000 new waiters and busboys in the food service category, a continuing testament to the economic benefits of huge portion sizes at the nation's dining establishments.

Overall, there has been a distinct slowdown in job creation over the last year but, so far, the most important economic statistic has failed to show any significant signs of distress.


Unlike the second most important economic statistic, consumer prices, there appears to be little or no reality gap between what the government reports and what its citizens experience when it comes to employment. With some notable exceptions, jobs seem to be plentiful, so long as you don't mind changing bed pans or super-sizing orders.

Continuing a trend that began in the 1970s and accelerated in 2001, only to be interrupted by a three year housing boom a few years back, the goods-producing segment of the economy is again in steady decline.

The combined net change to payrolls for natural resources/mining, construction, and manufacturing has been negative for six of the last eight months and a total of 190,000 jobs have been lost. This again demonstrates the impact of globalization where about the only area of goods-producing employment growth since the turn of the century has been the three-year housing boom that came to an end last year.

On the bright side, construction employment has again failed to disappoint the many housing pessimists by posting a goose egg for the month when many had been expecting a bloodbath. And only a few thousand retail trade positions were cut, indicating that the consumer continues to spend.

Within the professional and business services category surprising strength was seen in accounting, architecture, and computer systems design where 32,000 jobs were created.

Overall, this was not a bad report, though the details make very clear the changing nature of the economy.

14 comments:

Greyhair said...

Tim, again I have to take issue with you (unless you're tongue in cheek on this).

Three things. First, the jobs numbers reported by the government are, to say the least, "suspicious". Second, the reported number barely keeps up with population growth. Finally, (and you do point this out), the quality of the jobs suck and are lower paying. How is this a good jobs report?

We haven't had a "good jobs report" in years.

Tim said...

It's good compared to last month!

Tim said...

Greyhair,

I didn't mean to be flippant in the last comment but as to your first two points...

You can either try to make some sense of the data provided by the BLS regardless of its quality (because that's all there is) or you can ignore it or point out its many flaws. I try to make some sense of the data.

As to the question of keeping up with population growth, the old 150,000 figure was met (good, but not great) and there are continuing questions about whether the 150,000 figure is really a good number.

Greyhair said...

I would simply encourage you to consider the recent jobs numbers (such as they are) as compared to other periods of expansion. The recent years numbers are historically anemic to say the least.

Sure, a starving person would relish a piece of bread. But that doesn't mean it's a Txgiving meal.

;)

Anonymous said...

I believe the report because out of the 157k jobs created, 5 of them were mine. McDs, KFC, Jack in the Box, Night Time Security Guard at local hospital and President of the World Bank...

Anonymous

Anonymous said...

Great report if you believe taht 40,000 construction jobs were created with the birth death adjustment.

Tim said...

OK, the title must have been at least a little tongue-in-cheek - to be honest I don't really recall what I was thinking when I applied the title other than the obvious, "This needs a title".

It's hard getting back into the swing of things.

Anonymous said...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/06/construction-jobs-puzzle.html

Its the birth/death model at work.

EU Nelson, NZ

Tim said...

Remarkably, the "not seasonally adjusted" total of new construction jobs was 215,000. Add 40,000 for the birth death model adjustment and you get -255,000. The seasonal adjustment for May happens to be 255,000 which is how you get a seasonally adjusted total of zero.

It is not as if 40,000 jobs were lost and the birth death model adds 40,000 to get to 0.

State insurance agencies actually reported the creation of 215,000 jobs to the BLS in May and 66,000 of these new jobs were in residential specialty trade.

Tim said...

Paul Kasriel at Northern Trust has more on this subject:

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0706/document/dd060107.pdf

It's not as simple as some would have you believe.

Anonymous said...

It's a good job report for illegals.

Anonymous said...

What's real doesn't matter anymore.. it's all a matter of getting the sheep to comply

Aaron Krowne said...

With they way they measure employment, national product, and inflation now, the 70s/80s period would surely be deemed "recession-free".

The last anon. is right... it's all about management of expectations now. We wouldn't want to have mass demonstrations, voting for third parties, or runs on the banking system, now would we?

I think we've met or surpassed Soviet levels of propaganda, though in a more slick, subtle manner.

Here's a piece of mine looking critically at the BLS report, from a few reports ago.

Anonymous said...

I would be happy if my son had just one of those jobs... he seems to think all available jobs are somehow beneath him.

Considering that the best job any of his 20 something friends has is managing an IHOP, he may be right.

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