Wikinvest Wire

Spanish housing, Spanish gold

Thursday, June 14, 2007

What's the relationship between a Spanish housing boom that is quickly going bust and a Spanish central bank that is exchanging gold bullion for cash at a rate that has the country's armored car drivers pulling double shifts?

Dunno. But it sure is interesting to speculate.

A few days ago Bloomberg reported that abandoned housing developments, "ghost towns", now litter the coastline and of the inevitable first decline in home prices since record keeping started in the early 1990s.

Too much easy money and too much reckless lending have caused home prices to skyrocket in recent years and now, after too much home construction, there's a glut of inventory sitting on the market at prices that no one can afford.

Sounds familiar.

Meanwhile the Bank of Spain has been selling gold bullion at a rate never seen before. In a period of just three months almost eighty tons - one-quarter of their entire reserves - have exited the bank's vaults. Economic Minister Pedro Solbes claims his intention is to make the bank more profitable by investing the proceeds in fixed-income bonds that provide a return.

While many analysts believe that the gold price will continue to rise at rates far exceeding the return on bonds (it's averaged about 20 percent per year for the last five years), Mr. Solbes apparently wants to go for the sure five percent rather than waiting to see if gold will make new highs later this year and then move toward $1,000 an ounce.

Sounds familiar.

It seems that things started to unwind a few months back as a booming Spanish economy that had provided stellar job creation and a giddy, decade-long rise in asset prices began to flounder.

In May, the Economist reported that a big part of the problem lies in a trade imbalance that trails only the U.S. and the U.K. in absolute size. Trade deficits are the exception and not the rule in the Euro-zone and Spain's trade gap of 9 percent of GDP bests even the standards set by English speaking countries.

In a world awash in easy money, apparently the home-grown housing boom has led to rapid increases in borrowing and spending by an increasingly wealthy populace and now home prices and debt loads have become unmanageable.

Sounds familiar.

What doesn't sound familiar here is any connection between a troubled banking industry with an increasing number of bad loans to deal with and a central bank with an obvious need to "get liquid" in a hurry.

Is there a connection here or is a housing bust and the central bank's "dash to cash" just an interesting coincidence?

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Maybe they are counting on recovering a bunch of gold and silver from shipwreck salvage litigation.

>>Oh, but I just thought you might want something fine
Made of silver or of golden,
Either from the mountains of Madrid
Or from the coast of Barcelona.

>>Oh, but if I had the stars from the darkest night
And the diamonds from the deepest ocean,
I'd forsake them all for your sweet kiss,
For that's all I'm wishin' to be ownin'.


>>I got a letter on a lonesome day,
It was from her ship a-sailin',
Saying I don't know when I'll be comin' back again,
It depends on how I'm a-feelin'.

>>Well, if you, my love, must think that-a-way,
I'm sure your mind is roamin'.
I'm sure your heart is not with me,
But with the country to where you're goin'.

>>So take heed, take heed of the western wind,
Take heed of the stormy weather.
And yes, there's something you can send back to me,
Spanish boots of Spanish leather.

--Prince Bob of Asturias

plymster said...

What's up with Switzerland? You would think that if anyone had an internationally respected bank, it might be the Swiss. If they're dumping 250 tons of gold over 2 years right after the Spanish dump 80 tons in 3 months, it makes you wonder if the big boys know something we don't.

The Prudent Investor said...

Spain is not alone in the rain. I drove along the Mediterranean coast from Genova/Italy through France to Spain last December. The picture is the same in all three countries: Uncountable second homes behind "For Sale" signs, a good third of them not yet completed, litter not only the coast but also the hinterland 20-30 miles deep. The new ruins of Europe will be a visible sign of the money-creation craze we have been experiencing since the introduction of the Euro. This is valid for Portugal too where the current account deficit has risen to 7% of GDP.

Anonymous said...

Uhh... They're selling the gold for Euros, right? Then this really is about asset management, and not monetary policy.

The real question is why Spain has something called a "central bank" now that it no longer has its own currency.

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