What's their long-term plan?
Monday, June 18, 2007
Last week, the Bank of Switzerland announced that they plan to sell 250 tonnes of gold bullion into the market over the next two years. This comes shortly after news that the Bank of Spain had dumped more than 100 tonnes of the metal and word of additional sales by Belgium.
With the words "global inflation" on the lips of billions of people around the world and a rising price of gold sure confirmation of such, you have to wonder what the long-term plan is for Western central banks and their gold.
Do they plan to just keep selling the stuff until they have none left?
Why do they hold gold at all if it is simply a relic of some former, barbarous time - a metal that long ago lost its relevance in a world of advancing economic theory and practice?
So far this year, with each new press release detailing additional supply being pushed into the market, the gold price has taken another nose-dive only to trudge back up toward $700 an ounce, the level at which a line appears to have been drawn.
Like Gandalf to Balrog in the Mines of Moria, central bankers appear to be warning, "You shall not pass!"
Of course in the first Lord of the Rings movie, both Gandalf and Balrog took a perilous fall, Gandalf eventually gathering himself and averting disaster.
Will Western central bankers hold off their nemesis for a while longer and, if so, is it their intention to just stand there on the bridge indefinitely hoping that Balrog will get tired and walk away?
Balrog seems full of energy - not the type to tire easily.
Or, in the world of central banks and their gold, does Gandalf lose?
Surely their long-term plan can't be to continue to sell gold into the market indefinitely, keeping the price of the metal artificially low, until all their vaults are empty.
What will they do then when the price of gold continues to rise?
Raise interest rates to 20 percent?
With the amount of debt and leverage that has become commonplace in the world today?
Reality Check
As more and more of the world's citizens doubt their government's reporting of a "low inflation" world - as they see prices rising quickly around them, watch asset bubbles inflate, and hear of double-digit money supply growth - more and more of the world's citizens buy gold.
Like other commodities, the supply of gold is limited.
Unlike the paper and its electronic equivalent that spews from the global financial system at a dizzying rate, the supply of gold can not be increased with the push of a button on a computer keyboard.
That is why its value goes up.
The more the world's citizens buy gold, the higher the price goes, and the more that Western Central Banks are likely to sell - up to the point that they either decide to stop selling or they run out of gold.
Which will it be? When will it be?
Does anyone really think that this same discussion will be taking place ten years from now or fifty years from now?
Surely Western central bankers have some sort of a plan to keep the price of gold from making them look bad.
Don't they?
11 comments:
Ten years, fifty years? What are you crazy? This thing is gonna blow up spectacularly within the next five years. It won't be pretty.
If only they could do that with oil....
Moin from Germany,
add this to the picture ......
Seventy-four percent of central banks surveyed by Zurich- based UBS AG this month said they increased their holdings of asset-backed securities, emerging market debt and other higher- risk securities this year. In the next year, 68 percent plan to add more, according to the survey, which covers banks that oversee 91 percent of the world's foreign-currency reserves.
In a very esoteric way, what is it that makes gold worth anything?
It's all perception of value.
If enough players all agree to worship a piece of paper, isn't that the same thing as a whole group of folks agreeing to worship a metal?
I know that intrinsically an unlimited resource (paper) vs. a limited resource (gold) is important. But world economic leaders really seem to be saying that inflation doesn't matter. Just move the decimel point and buy a new Mercedes.
It doesn't really matter until people who's resources are diminished with inflation (regular folks) get pissed off.
Is that on any horizon? Unless inflation gets hyper, I don't. Particularly as long as the government is doing the measuring and the media is doing the reporting and they're believed. And especially as long as folks can continue buying that new plasma teevee.
Party on dudes!
Disclaimer: I'm long gold.
:)
With no one allowed to perform an independent audit of the world's gold vaults, how do we know that there's still any significant physical gold left for the central banks to sell?
I'm beginning to believe the security around places like Fort Knox is not to protect any gold, but to prevent prying eyes from discovering that the emporer has no clothes.
The buyer of the gold is another central bank, so....
What if the goal is the headline of the sale and they're just playing musical chairs?
The game isn't Bank of Switzerland vs. Bank of England. The game is banks vs. us.
I too have long wondered whether there really is any gold at Fort Knox.
Sorry to be dim about this but I thought the central banks didnt actually 'sell' gold. That is, if I 'buy' some I dont actually get delivery of it. They hold on to it for me. I buy ownership of the gold but not possession.
Isnt that how they trade?
As people dont really know how much gold is in any of these vaults how can we know the value of gold?
This is all smoke and mirrors. If people buy gold it should be physical bullion - otherwise youre just buying paper, surely?
There is no central bank "plan" for how they handle their gold, other than the 500 tonne/year Washington Agreement. No matter how the "barbarous relic" is denigrated. the fact remains that gold is the only universally recognized numeraire. No paper currency in the history of human commerce has ever lasted as money and a store of value.
Remember: the last link to gold was severed by Nixon in 1971. Since then, we have all been unwitting guinea pigs in a vast international experiment with floating fiat money with the $US as the world's reserve currency. As competetive devaluaions erode the value of our savings, those governments and individuals with the brains and wherewhithal to exchange $US for gold are doing so. When central bank sales occur, gold goes down slightly or remains the same, then recovers. This CB gold never makes it to the Comex. It goes right into another CB's coffers, mainly Russia and China. These banks can't buy on the open market for fear of spiking the price, so they keep their domestic mine's output and buy when other CB's are foolish (or desperate like Spain) enough to sell.
This fiat based experiment is doomed to a very bad end. All the cb's are playing to the same Keynesian rules, and they cooperate to a point to keep the inflation game going, Eventually, inflation will get out of control, or there will be a derivatives blowup that pyramids out of control faster than they can put fingers in the dikes, or a sharp disruption in the oil supply, and gold will break the $700 barrier. Then, it's off to the races.
No politician will have the will or the power to raise interest rates high enough to stop the hyperinflation. Even 10% rates, much less the 18.5% of Paul Volcker's era, would throw the US and likely world economy into a deep recession, possibly a recession. The best disincentive to owning gold is effectively high interest rates, which mean high enough to render a yield 5% over the real (not CPI) rate of inflation.
It's not possible to accurately predict when this tipping point will come, but there are guideposts. Look for China to become less dependent on US buying as they develop domestic demand for their output. Look for more oil sales being denominated in Euros.
A prudent, rational individual who sees these issues for what they are, devoid of emotionalism and wishful thinking, must come to the conclusion that owning gold (or silver) is the only way to protects one's money from the ravages of inflation. Since markets are irrational mechanisms, don't be surprised when gold forms its own bubble as irrationally exuberant latecomers drive gold up to dizzying heights.
Tim, I hate to spoil the surprises from now into the rest of the year but I would really appreciate if you could post something on your 2007 Predictions http://tinyurl.com/yavyzn which other than Long-Term Bond Yields and Gold has been unbelievably accurate. Your take?
I had planned to do a mid-year check on these and since mid-year is almost here, look for that sometime soon.
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