DataQuick update on SoCal real estate

Yesterday, DataQuick released the June real estate sales data for Southern California. According to the latest figures, volume is plumbing new lows while median prices remain remarkably resilient, only Ventura County showing a significant decline since the 2006 price peak.

The $50,000 reduction in home prices in Ventura County shown below (violet line) will likely come as a surprise to sellers today who are asking over $100,000 less than what comparable homes sold for at the peak. What used to fetch over $800,000 is now for sale at $695,000 and they aren't moving - at least that's what is happening in my old neighborhood.

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Orange County just made a new high, but you'd probably have trouble finding this trend confirmed by recent sales except at the upper end - the shift in sales mix toward higher priced homes continues to make the median very misleading.

Riverside County looks ready to overtake Ventura Country next month for the largest year-over-year decline, while prices in Los Angeles County continue to amaze.

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The real story in the last few months has been the plunge in sales volume in low-cost Riverside and San Bernardino Counties - the chart below had to be rescaled to include the -50 percent value on the vertical axis to include the most recent year-over-year change in San Berdu.

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According to DataQuick, last month's overall sales volume was the slowest June since 1993. DataQuick President Marshall Prentice commented on the number of sales.

We're probably pretty close to the 'floor' level of buying and selling, meaning that most of the activity is basic and not discretionary. Today's buyers and sellers really need to move for one reason or another, not because they want a guest room or bigger yard. The exception seems to be high-end markets, most of which are doing pretty well.

It's going to be a long summer.