His doctrine will be the death of his legacy
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Lost in all of last week's Fed injection commotion was this WSJ editorial($) on Friday in which Gerald O'Driscoll, former vice president of the Dallas Fed, shared some thoughts on the growing serial-bubble-blower legacy of the ex-Fed head.Our Subprime Fed
The timing of the book launch in just five weeks should be delicious, given the rate at which things seem to be falling apart - The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World.
In recent years, monetary policy has created an expectation that the Federal Reserve will bail out investors when asset bubbles deflate. The recent crisis in the subprime mortgage market is at least partly the outcome of this new approach to monetary policy. That crisis has already had widespread ramifications for homeowners and investors.
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The collapse of the subprime mortgage market is the latest in a series of financial bubbles whose existence reflects, at least in part, moral hazard in financial markets.
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The new moral hazard in financial markets has its source in what can be best described as the Greenspan Doctrine. The doctrine was clearly enunciated by Alan Greenspan in his December 19, 2002 speech. Mr. Greenspan argued that asset bubbles cannot be detected and monetary policy ought not to in any case be used to offset them. The collapse of bubbles can be detected, however, and monetary policy ought to be used to offset the fallout.
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The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate sharply after the bursting of the stock market bubble in March 2000. In the eyes of many, the Fed cut rates too far and held them down too long, fueling not only a vigorous economic expansion but also the housing bubble. In his December 2002 speech, Mr. Greenspan was at pains to deflect any argument that the Fed was inflating a housing bubble. "To be sure," he acknowledged, mortgage debt was high relative to household income (remember the date) by historical norms. But "low interest rates" were keeping the servicing requirements of the mortgage debt manageable (emphasis added). "Moreover, owing to continued large gains in residential real estate values, equity in homes has continued to rise despite very large debt-financed extractions."
How wrong the Fed chairman was!
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The Greenspan Doctrine prescribes a stimulative overkill that begins the cycle anew. The Greenspan-era gains against inflation will then prove to be only temporary. His doctrine will be the death of his legacy, a legacy that already includes a housing bubble and its aftermath.
Pre-order yours today (hey, shouldn't someone have sent me a copy of this to review?)
1 comments:
what does he care - he propped up his financial buddies on wall street, got tons of attention and is now raking in beaucoup bucks for his "advice" and speaking fees. ... so far it looks like Bernanke is not continuing his legacy - good for Bernanke!
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