Seeing red
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Oh Dear, everything is red! We're back from our little trip and the only thing that's not red on my portfolio page is NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG). That looks interesting - oh, now it's red too...a clean sweep. What kind of damage has Ben Bernanke done?
And, based on a quick trip through my inbox, where links to this story showed up in four different messages, it looks like China is seeing red over proposed U.S. trade legislation:China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
Maybe the Chinese government is just mad at Alan Greenspan after he blamed them for all the credit market troubles in the U.S. the other day.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.
Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
More later perhaps - clearly there's lots to catch up on.
Full disclosure: Long NovaGold at time of writing.
5 comments:
Fed fund futures indicate a 100 percent chance of a rate cut in September????
Markets are trying to "pull a Cramer" and force the Fed's hand.
Barring a complete financial collapse in the next few weeks, there is NO way the Fed will lower in Sept.
BTW, are the Fed Funds futures ever correct? (that's a rhetorical question)
Excuse me while I remove my whiplash collar .....
:)
If you like roller coasters, it's been quite a ride. Didn't someone say something about a slow August or something? Just wait until the first team big money boyz come back from their August recess. They'll straighten things out.
Bernanke has likely made a call to add another shift to the printing factory, so help is on the way. Since when have any of the modern central bankers had a problem providing liquidity.
It's a good time to just turn your computer off until Nov.
Not the Chinese, it's those durn Frenchies....
Most people don't understand Fed Funds futures. They represent the average of the OBSERVED rates during the month - NOT the Fed Funds target rate.
Look here:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm
They usually add or subtract reserves to keep the effective rate near the target rate, but they don't have to. For all practical purposes, the fed has cut the Fed Funds rate (at least temporarily) by 50 basis points starting on Friday the 10th (without changing the target rate). That could end at any time.
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