A few gold charts
Thursday, October 25, 2007
The World Gold Council just released another Gold Investment Digest and it contains some nice charts. First, the relative size and growth of the gold ETFs around the world.
The streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (AMEX:GLD) just added a couple more tonnes today and is within a whisker of the 600 tonne mark - they are about to surpass the Chinese central bank in gold holdings unless the Chinese have been buying lately (which wouldn't be surprising).
In the chart below, the sales by the Bank of England back in 1999 and 2000 at under $300 look pretty silly now. Had they waited a few years, they could have sold the stuff for almost triple the price they got - way to go Gordon!
Spain, France, and Switzerland were big sellers last year, but that hasn't seemed to stop the price of the yellow metal from rising 20 percent or more in each of the last few years.
Who's going to sell this year? Dunno, but it looks like they're about to start emptying whatever is left in Fort Knox.
Mine production has been down for a few years as you can see below. As another example of the law of unintended consequences, the more the central banks sell, the more restrained the price increases are. This makes the business of gold mining only a marginally profitable business at best because it is energy intensive and most energy commodities and other raw materials have been rising much faster than the gold price.
Eventually, when the gold price is much, much higher, more production will come on line and this will put downward pressure on the price, but until then, if central banks really want to suppress the gold price, they ought to look into dumping crude oil into the market to make gold production wildly profitable, thus spurring more production.
Full Disclosure: Long GLD at time of writing
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7 comments:
Speaking as one who fancies himself somewhat of an accomplished chart-maker, the folks at the World Gold Council should be commended on their work - that second "stacked column" chart is particularly good.
I'm thinking of moving a few pennies into GLD pre-Fed; might end up with a few more afterwards! ;-)
When the first half-point cut was announced I made a snap decision to buy at $725 - that was very uncharacteristic for me since I think my last purchase was in the $300 range years ago.
I'm starting to change the whole way I think about "savings".
Did you see Steve Forbes' latest commentary? He called for the Fed to announce that it would soak up liquidity and bring gold down to $500/oz.
I know the Fed won't follow his advice, but over the long-term, 5-10 years, what do you think the chances are that the Fed will do as Volcker did nearly 30 years ago?
No, I didn't. If you could post a link, that would be great.
Bernanke pulling a Volcker? Not a chance.
Don't worry about the Fed actually defending the currency. The banksters who own it are already positioned in gold. Think this way to be like them: keep milking the cow until it falls over.
Here's what Forbes wrote:
While markets focus on the subprime mortgage crisis, an even bigger one is looming: the ever weakening dollar.
Twenty years ago we experienced the worst one-day stock market decline in history, a crash caused by the dollar and fears of trade protectionism. When both the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, under its new chairman, Alan Greenspan, seemed to signal that we wanted a feeble dollar, everyone suddenly wanted out of dollar-denominated assets.
Today gold in particular and commodities in general are blaring out that there are too many dollars in the market. The Fed shouldn't increase interest rates, it should float them. Ben Bernanke & Co. should soak up the excess liquidity--over a 12-to 18-month period--until gold drops below $500 an ounce. More immediately the Fed should announce that this is what it's doing so that markets can adjust in an orderly way to a newly stable dollar. The Fed can simultaneously make clear that it and bank regulators will make sure the financial system doesn't abandon solvent borrowers.
http://members.forbes.com/forbes/2007/1112/019.html
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