Posts
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
Byron Wien's "5 Sure Things"
Monday, November 12, 2007
Not a regular watcher of CNBC - only tuning in at the end of down days, which, ironically makes me a regular viewer lately - it was a pleasant surprise to see Byron Wien of Pequot Capital talking with Maria Bartiromo about his "5 Sure Things" today after markets closed:
Even after a day like to today, when about the only thing that went up was the dollar, this list still makes a lot of sense.
Well, maybe all of them except cotton.
It seems like we've been waiting about five years for Jim Rogers' predictions about sugar to materialize.
Cotton?
---------------------------------
UPDATE 11/12/07 - 5:50 PM
This chart is provided as part of the discussion in the comments section.
To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs, stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research. Or, sign up for a free trial.
6 comments:
Sugar since 2002? Had you done your homework rather than showing your ignorance, you would know that sugar tripled after 2002 and is still up 200%. May I suggest you find something else to do with your time rather than displaying your ignorance for all to see?
Wien's boss, Art Samberg, was pushing cotton in the Barron's Roundtable issue that came out in January. Sounds like they're staying with it.
The rationale makes intuitive sense. The amount of available farmland is finite (actually shrinking). So as farmers produce take advantage of higher priced commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat -- that plant less cotton. Eventually a shortage develops. From the Barron's article, I remember Samberg saying cotton isn't so important in the U.S. where substitution is easy. But in China cotton is very important and if a cotton shortage develops, the Chinese will be there on the demand side to push prices higher.
My homework is done (see chart above). If you go back exactly five years you get an annualized gain of four or five percent. Sugar has underperformed most commodities by a wide margin. Note that the early-2006 sugar price spike came after the "addicted to oil" State of the Union speech and was short-lived due to the influence of companies like Archer Daniels Midland.
The call for cotton does make sense, just like soybeans and wheat this year after everyone planted corn for ethanol.
Just to be clear - I like Jim Rogers a lot. I just happen to remember when people make bad calls - shorting stocks a few years ago was another bad one from Jim, but, he's made many more good calls than bad ones.
5:36 PM -- welcome to the blog Jim Rogers.
Only #2 has a date to it. The others are unfalsifiable.
Post a Comment