Wikinvest Wire

Still a long way to go down

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

It would be a miracle to see only a ten percent decline in Southern California real estate prices after rising by hundreds of percent over a period of about ten years - that's where things stand right now according to the most recent report by DataQuick.
Last year at this time, the median price for a home in the Southland was $485,000 and now it's $435,000. That still sounds like a lot of money - especially if you have to come up with a five or ten percent downpayment, borrow the rest, and then pay that money back with interest out of your income.

Have you seen what the median Southern California home looks like?

It hardly seems worth the effort these days as you can no longer plan on the value going up. How likely is it that these curves are going to pop back up over the zero axis anytime soon?
Marshall "almost all if not all of those gains are here to stay" Prentice, President of DataQuick, had these comments:

Some might point to the October-to-November increase as evidence sales have bottomed out, but we’ll need to see a sustained trend. We also saw November sales rise a bit back in the troubled market of 1994, well before it hit bottom. It’s worth noting, though, that sales financed with conforming loans have increased each month since September, and last month we saw signs that the jumbo loan problem, while unresolved, wasn’t worsening.
Yes, it's worth noting, but that's about all - there's still a long way to go down.

And don't forget that sales volume will bottom long before prices do - don't let anyone fool you into thinking that because sales finally make a bottom, probably sometime next year, that prices will begin rising again.

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Any doubt that Rupert Murdoch now own the WSJ:

The Clinton Housing Bubble

Tim said...

I saw that and was going to comment on it but other things popped up. It wasn't an entirely nutty view. I'd say that about five percent of the boom could be attributed to the tax law change - about 95 percent of the op-ed was nuts.

Anonymous said...

The argument doesn't wash. Cpital gains tax cuts don't cause bubbles, they only cause the asset's value to increase by the amount of tax saved. And capital gains taxes on other assets were cut as well, so it's not like housing was isolated.

Tim said...

I can see how reducing the capital gains tax on real estate (for primary residences only) could add some fuel to the fire (I figured 5 percent), but that was certainly not the cause of the housing bubble.

I can't believe this guy won the Nobel Prize, but, then again, I say that a lot about the winners in the Economics category (more and more, that category seems like a sort of "Special Olympics" within the Nobel Prize Competition).

Anonymous said...

Think for a moment what would happen to the stock market if capital gains taxes were eliminated. It's a nice thought isn't it

EconomicDisconnect said...

Clinton enjoyed the credit for the late 1990's boom even though it had nothing to do with any white house policy. To try and blame the home price bubble on him is a stretch beyond all reason however. The title of this site tells you all you need to know about who is to blame, the "maestro" himself.

Anonymous said...

Clinton = the triumph of image over substance.

Clinton actually took credit for a boom that didn't exist. Despite popular perceptions, the *1990s* had the worst economy (lowest real GDP growth) since the Great Depression. Before he left the White House, however, the numbers got revised (hedonics) to move the 1990s just ahead of the 1980s. Amazing that he could sell an asset bubble combined with declining unemployment (almost entirely caused by demographics) as a great boom.

Anonymous said...

You might see prices in San Diego go back to pre- 2000 price levels. Look at how much they bubbled. Revert to the mean...

http://www.housedata.info/CA/SanDiego.Carlsbad.SanMarcos/

I believe that the prices of houses are going to drop BELOW the pre bubble levels because:

Fewer people will have any kind of good credit

Lenders will not get that reckless again for a long time if ever

There was overbuilding due to the speculation

The economy failing

IMAGE

  © Blogger template Newspaper by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP