Wikinvest Wire

Even Tobin Smith is now a bear

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

For those of you who have seen those loopy Fox Business infotainment shows on the weekend with their uber-bullish cast of characters and seemingly endless optimism about owning stocks, this report of an about-face by Tobin Smith, formerly the uberist of the uber-bulls, might come as a bit of a surprise.

The evidence has been building that we are in a recession.

And according to all of the indicators I study, this won't be a drive-by recession like the one we experienced in 2002.
All four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research—employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing—are negative.

The US economy is stalled, and without another historic set of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and another round of big tax cuts, we are likely going to continue crawling.

[Federal Reserve chairman Ben] Bernanke should realize that only an immediate 50-basis point cut, and then another one following in rapid succession, will give the economy a fighting chance.

Of course, the Fed won't act in such dramatic fashion, first because it can't, and second because it would lose all credibility regarding its inflation-fighting bona fides. Basically, the Fed is stuck with conventional-warfare tactics in what has now become an unconventional market slowdown.
He goes on to talk about things like getting rid of high P/E stocks, holding more cash, and recommends against any sort of panic selling.

If he is as wrong about panic selling as he was about what the Fed would do (this was written two days ago), his inbox will probably fill up rather quickly between now and the next Bulls & Bears.

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Apollo said...

All these complete idiots keep saying to get into 'cash'. Can you imagine the tsunami into gold when they realize their 'cash' is losing 10% per year through inflation???

tedzbear said...

OMG! Isn't that a BUY signal for sure???

Tim said...

That thought crossed my mind too, but I think you have to wait until he actually says "Sell".

Anonymous said...

tedzbear said...
OMG! Isn't that a BUY signal for sure???

give that bear a cigar

Anonymous said...

Tobin probaly has the worst record of calling anything right. Everyone else called the recession while Tobin claimed no way and then after we were in a recession Tobin tries to take credit for calling it. B.S. I make more money doing the opposite of what Tobin says than I ever made doing what he said. His string of disasterous stock picks is everywhere.

Anonymous said...

I have a number of his first newsletters from 2000, and they are a hoot. Most of the companies he flagged back then are now bankrupt or priced at pennies on the dollar. JDS Uniphase was one, Vignette (too good to pass up under $20) was another. [Vignette has lost 93% of its value after a 10-1 stock split.] He managed at least four or five horrendous calls a week.

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