Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Compared to the last Federal Reserve easing cycle from 2001 to 2003, we're a little early for a pause, but it looks like that's what we're going to get this summer.
How long the pause lasts remains to be seen - last time it was almost a year before short-term rates were cut from 1.75 percent to 1.25 percent. Shortly thereafter, it was on to 1.25 percent and then an even one percent where they sat for more than a year.
Of course in the current cycle, we started from a lower level and went a little bit faster than last time. And food and energy prices are now sky high - you've don't hear too much concern about "deflation" this time around.
[Note: In the chart above, a quarter-point rate cut at tomorrow's FOMC meeting is assumed. You know what happens when you assume...]