Wikinvest Wire

Back to 2004 home prices in Southern California

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

With this latest report from DataQuick, it appears that Southern California home prices have moved back to 2004 levels. Surprisingly, an expansion to the left in the chart below will likely be needed to make a similar determination this summer.
Home prices in Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties are holding up best so far, but look for San Berdu to make up for lost time in the months ahead. You have to go back to late-2003 and early-2004 to find median prices in San Diego and Ventura Counties comparable to those last month - that sounds about right based on cruising through Zillow.

In last month's report, home prices in Ventura County were declining the fastest, but the Inland Empire Counties reasserted themselves as loss leaders with whopping 28 and 27 percent year-over-year declines. It looks like a change of scale will be needed next month to open up the minus 30 to minus 40 percent range.
Marshall "almost all if not all of those gains are here to stay" Prentice, President of DataQuick, had these comments on the March data:

We continue to believe a lot of people who could be buying or selling right now are opting to sit tight until they sense we've hit bottom. Often what we're left with, especially in inland areas, are sales driven by foreclosure or the threat of it. Although prices have fallen off their peaks in most places, the magnitude of the decline continues to vary widely, with the largest discounts concentrated in markets rife with foreclosure resales.
To say that "prices have fallen off their peaks" is a very big understatement.

To say that "the magnitude of the decline continues to vary widely" is correct - from a little over $100,000 in San Bernardino to almost $200,000 in Ventura.

That's pretty wide.

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d said...

Truly spectacular.

Folks owning Tips and/or long term treasuries, have increased their purchasing power by 50% in a year.

Anonymous said...

I never really thought about it before, but it would make sense that we'd see the same kind of extremes on the way down as on the way up. If price rose at 30 percent or more in 2004-2005, why not fall by that much in 2008?

d said...

30% down is much greater than 30% up.

Anonymous said...

Good point. Ouch.

tech98 said...

Prices tend to be stickier on the way down, because people are reluctant to drop prices. What you see instead is a buildup of inventory and transaction volume dropping like a brick as people resist selling for less than their house is 'worth' unless they are in immediate need to make the sale. Capitulation takes a while.

Bring it on. I'm waiting for 1998+CPI pricing.

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