Wikinvest Wire

Home prices - how low can you go?

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Standard and Poor's released the March data (.pdf) for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showing a 14.4 percent year-over-year decline for the 20-City Composite Index, the steepest decline on record. Indices for individual cities are shown below:On their current trajectories, Los Angeles and Miami should overtake Washington D.C. and New York within a few months.

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's noted:

The steep downturn in residential real estate continues. There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and six of those now at negative rates exceeding -20%. Looking closely at these returns, you can see that 15 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows, and eleven are in double digit decline, with Chicago being the latest metro area to join these ranks.

The monthly data paints a similar picture, with 18 of the metro areas reporting at least seven consecutive months of negative returns. For the first time in as many months, we finally saw monthly price appreciation in two of the metro areas – Charlotte was up 0.2% in March over February, and Dallas was up 1.1%.

In tabular form, the data looks like this:
Charlotte remains the only metropolitan area in the index with a gain from year ago levels with a modest 0.8 percent increase, down from last months year-over-year gain of 1.5 percent.

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ndd said...

Tim, I did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation of YoY Case-Schiller substituted CPI, and it looks like it now stands at (-1%)???

vipness said...

I know of two families in So Cal doing the move up - landlord thing. I think that's what you called it. Hopefully things work out for them as they did for you.

Tim said...

I'll be updating those charts later in the day - I've been putting it off for some time now but planned to plug in the most recent data and see what results.

dearieme said...

"very few silver linings that one can see in the data": there's a silver lining for people who intend to enter the market.

Anonymous said...

Tim, I assume the chart is not adjusted for inflation?

Looking at Detroit's numbers, I wonder if an inflation-adjusted plot would show a number of other cities actually falling below the 2000 normalization...

Tim said...

ndd: I get -0.26 percent as of March (see next post).

vipness: I don't know what the "move up - landlord thing is" - we haven't owned any real estate for a few years now.

dearieme: does there have to be a silver lining?

anon: no, the charts are not adjusted for inflation.

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