Wikinvest Wire

Maybe not just a mental recession

Thursday, July 31, 2008

The Commerce Department released their initial estimate for second quarter GDP along with some major revisions going back more than three years. More later...UPDATE - July 31st, 7:10 AM PST

Just had to mention this "Predictions" post at Seeking Alpha, from January 1st, 2007:

7. Economic Growth will Slow, Consumption will Continue
Economic growth will continue to slow, coming in just below 2 percent for the year with a recession starting in the fourth quarter.
Note that economic growth for 2007 was revised to exactly 2.0 percent in 2007 - the chart above is a bit misleading because it simply averages the previous four quarters to arrive at an annual rate.
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Anonymous said...

Looks like someone has developed an addiction to interactive graphs lately. : )

I'd also add that the govnt's data is really not all that useful, as the way they calculate this is flawed and most importantly the deflator used to get growth rates is hopelessly understating inflation.

Tim said...

Yes, a more realistic measure of inflation would produce a very different set of numbers, but a trend can still be seen using the governments numbers, so long as the bogusness (yes, it's a word) of the inflation data is held constant.

little larry sellers said...

I don't think Phil Gramm is EVER going to live down his "mental recession" comments. People will probably cite that whopper long after Mr Gramm is no longer with us.

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