Wikinvest Wire

Just wait til they revise the data

Friday, September 05, 2008

If you think the recent jobs data looks bad now, wait until they do the revisions - the birth death model shows a net creation of almost a million jobs over the last year, many of which are not likely to persist when they begin looking at real data. As it is, year-over-year job growth is now plunging headlong into negative territory.
IMAGE NAMEThe Labor Department reported a decline of 84,000 for nonfarm payrolls in August including downward monthly revisions for June (from -51,000 to -100,000) and July (from -51,000 to -60,000).

Also making news was a five year high in the unemployment rate at 6.1 percent.

As usual, job creation in health care and government provided some support to the overall jobs picture with manufacturing and professional and business services leading the way down. Job growth for food services and drinking establishments, a stalwart in recent years, yielded only 2,300 new positions.
IMAGE NAMEIt appears that temporary help is being reduced at accelerated rates, employment services payrolls reduced by 54,000 in August and temporary help (a subcategory of employment services) letting go a net 37,000 workers.

Fed funds futures now reportedly indicate a chance of a short-term interest rate cut sometime in in 2009.

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CityUnslicker said...

and when that graph is compared to share prices, the outlook is not for a bounce in Q3 and Q4.

still with commodities down, gold down, high inflation and untrustworthy banks to deposit money into - what is one to do!!

isharpe100 said...

The whole market is being vaporized. I am long many of the things that should do well (including gold) in this enviornment and my portfolio has been hammered.

Tim said...

I know the feeling...

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else think that maybe the birth-death model may be erring on too little job creation for manufacturing, given the disparity between the manufacturing stats and the manufacturing employment stats???

Tim said...

Hmmm... hadn't thought about that. Interesting.

DaveK said...

What effect does the aging baby-boomer generation have on the statistical data here? Aren't they all retiring about now?

Anonymous said...

Retiring baby boomers shouldn't affect the data save for those desirous of work at Wal-Mart but unable to land a job there.

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