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A housing market bottom in 2011?
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Thanks to a link from the Implode-O-Meter, it looks as though there are now enough samples to declare "2011" the winner in yesterday's home price bottom survey.
It's interesting that there are twice as many votes for "2014 or later" than there are for "2013". Anyone wanting to venture a guess for why that might be, please feel free to do so. The year 2014 is five years away making the peak to trough about ten years, meaning that we wouldn't see another home price peak until sometime in the 2030s, assuming the rise takes twice as long as the decline.
6 comments:
I voted for the 2014 or later category because any real correction that needs to happen in housing prices will be extremely drawn out due to gov't intervention. Housing is still unaffordable (even rents are ridiculous). I think that causing this correction in home prices to draw out will cause people to grow tiresome of this asset class and then move on to another asset class by then; or be completely broke due to some kind of *.flation which will perpetually redefine the definition of a "bottom" in housing prices. It'd be too frustrating to score a goal if the goal posts keep moving and easier to find somewhere else to fiddle-faddle away one's money.
Last housing bubble topped in 1990 and did not reach a final bottom until around 1998.
In California, it was more like 1990-91 to 1995-1996 - I think all the DataQuick data bears that out. Boston had something of a bubble at about the same time, but I don't know the dates for that. Did prices decline anywhere else in the 1990s (aside from the U.K.)?
"2003". Anyone wanting to venture a guess for why that might be, please feel free to do so.
Because even O can't turn the clock back?
My bad...fixed
Well... just a guess.
Adjusted for inflation, we may never again see 2005 housing prices, at least in some parts of California.
Nominal? with the way inflation may be cooking up, it could be 2011-2014 for a bottom. A return to insanity in 2020-2025 maybe?
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