Wednesday, February 11, 2009
In response to a question submitted earlier in the week about how one goes about "investing for deflation", Kevin Depew at Minyanville writes:
Conventional wisdom is that there is always something to buy in a bear market and sell in a bull market. However, if the long-term deflationary debt unwind thesis is correct, the point of recognition will result in the simultaneous decline of virtually all financial assets.Wow - what a prospect.
Under those circumstances, shopping for bargains among the rubble is like groping around in a pile of knives. This is a difficult concept to grasp, especially given the length and magnitude of the secular bull market in social mood and, subsequently, financial assets, that brought us to this point. But the reality is that during a deflationary debt unwind there are no good long-term investments other than cash.
The best you could reasonably expect to do is earn one or two percent on your cash...
It really sucks that our health insurance just went up 20 percent.