Friday, May 22, 2009
This is update #2 for the "Guess the 2009 Mid-Year Price of Oil and Gold" contest. It's been an interesting week, a point that should be clear when looking at the move up and to the right by the little yellow diamond representing the combined prices for these two commodities.
Extrapolating from last week's action, moves that saw oil surge 9 percent to $61.55 a barrel and gold rise 3 percent to close at $957 an ounce, would put oil back over $100 a barrel by the end of June with gold at almost $1150 an ounce.
That ain't gonna happen. Is it?
We'll find out soon enough.
Those are Jim Beam's guesses snuggled up against current prices with ES and Mathlete not far behind as indicated below in the first top-ten list for this contest. (Yes, I know, there are two guesses for disinter and one of them must be eliminated - I'll probably just remove disinter_1 since disinter_2 seems to be doing so well - for the full list of contest guesses go here).
Yours truly is in position #58 out of 81, far away from the action at the moment, but confidence is high that things will work out better than last time when, after a series of top ten finishes, your contest host was in about the bottom 25, just like now.
Recall that the winner receives a free one-year subscription to Iacono Research where the model portfolio is on a tear, up about 11 percent after three weeks in May and surging past the Nasdaq 100 for the first time in 2009 with a year-to-date gain of almost 18 percent.