Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Today's closing prices for a barrel of oil and an ounce of gold were $69.89 and $926.60, respectively, making ycching the winner of the sixth "Guess the Price of Oil and Gold" contest by a narrow margin over jlowey and Bruno T.
In first place for the last three weeks as prices moved very little, ycching wins a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research.
Sadly, the Inscrutible Chicken came up short in his late move toward the top, finishing fourth.
Better cluck next time...
A list of the top-ten finishers (out of over 80 guesses) is shown below. Interestingly, the type of calculation makes a difference for the second and third place finishers, but not for the top spot (i.e., the "Diff. Alt." column is a square root of the sum of the squares calculation versus the simple sum of the percent differences in the "Total Diff." column).
The average guesses of $59 for a barrel of oil and $936 for an ounce of gold were off by a total of almost 16 percent and, during the almost two months that the contest went on, the oil price rose from just under $60 a barrel to almost $70 and the gold price moved up about five dollars from around $920 an ounce.
Ycching, please send me your email address and I'll get an account set up for you.
Thanks to all who participated.
There should be a much more exciting year-end edition of this contest set to kick off sometime in October. With the notable exception of 2008, as the oil price was heading toward almost $150 a barrel in June, the year-end editions have always been much more exciting than the mid-year editions due to generally larger price moves.