Friday, June 19, 2009
After the recent turn of events that closed the door on a new high for the price of gold this spring (summer arrives this weekend), attention turns to a very encouraging historical pattern that has developed during the current decade - surges late in the odd-numbered years of 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2007 leading to much higher levels after the snow melts.
Will the 2009-2010 period produce a similar result? We'll find out soon enough.
It's important to remember that it takes time to move past previous highs and the bigger the high, the longer it takes. It was almost a full year before the early-2004 high was surpassed and it took almost 18 months for the early-2006 high of $725 an ounce to be recaptured.
The early-2008 high of just over $1,000 has been tested a few times now, each time being turned back short of that mark. Maybe it was just too soon. A repeat of the 2006-2008 period would see a new all-time high this fall with much higher prices in 2010.