Thursday, July 23, 2009
The folks at Pimco offer up a new investment outlook in which they further elaborate on what exactly the "New Normal" is.
The key assumption of our Secular Outlook is that following the severe shocks to the global economy in the second half of 2008, the world embarked upon a journey of change not likely to be reversed over the next few years. This journey, which his expected to be characterized by starts, stops and volatility, will end at a destination that can be describes as a "New Normal".Let's see... They have to reappoint Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman or find a new one before the end of the year and, then, the economy will be gathering steam as we head into a mid-term election where the central bank will be loathe to either squash a recovery or appear to be influenced by Congress or the White House. What could go wrong?
Short-term Deflation, Long-term Inflation - Deflation risks should predominate the near term given the severity of the collapse in global demand and the large gap in actual versus potential output. Inflation risks will arise later in the PIMCO secular horizon. Potential output could be more constrained due to supply destruction while policymakers struggle to withdraw massive levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus that have recently been introduced.
U.S. Dollar Risk - In the U.S., inflation risk and currency risk are linked. Should U.S. policymakers lack the commitment or skill to drain the system of emergency liquidity the appropriate time, confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency could erode.