Wikinvest Wire

Rosenberg on stock-commodity cycles

Thursday, July 16, 2009

In Cocktails with Dave (.pdf -registration required), Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg waxes philosophically on the public's enduring (but clearly misguided) fascination with equities now that we have about reached the mid-way point in what can only be characterized as a secular (long-term, as in 18 year average) bear market.

The following graphic is provided as Exhibit "A".
IMAGE Rosenberg notes: "This does not mean that cyclical bull markets cannot occur – they did even in the 1930s and in Japan in the 1990s ... But what is critical is that in secular bear markets, rallies are to be rented, not owned; whereas in secular bull markets, selloffs are to be treated as opportunities to build long-term positions at better price levels."


Anonymous said...

I note that the non gain cycles coincided with central bank mistakes. The 30s were a credit cirses induced slowdown. The 70s were an inflation induced slowdown. Now the 2000s are yet anouther credit crises induced slowdown.

Ted S. said...

What's really shocking about this chart is the log scale - it reminds you just how small the 08-09 stock market crash was compared to the one in 29-33!

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