Monday, August 31, 2009
Here's an interesting juxtaposition as we get ready to enter what is, historically, the most dangerous period of the year for equity markets. At CNBC Jeff Cox writes that it's never been a better time to buy and, even if other investors start selling, you don't have to.
An anticipated correction following the summer's sharp rally of about 15 percent since mid-July has some analysts thinking that September could live up to its hostile reputation. Those predictions are buoyed by the first month of fall's reputation as the market's worst, with stocks down about 1 percent historically.To be fair, there is a good dose of bearishness in this story to counter the views of Mr. Baum, but it's pretty clear where CNBC stands when it comes to stock prices - they don't the nation's number one business news network "Bubblevision" for nothing.
But the prevailing sentiment seems to be that even if a correction does come along, it will be healthy for the markets. Now is not the time, market bulls say, to be taking money off the table.
"People start to see housing starts increase and sales are starting to increase and inventories are getting wiped out, and all of a sudden maybe it's not so bad out there," says Nadav Baum, managing director of investments at BPU Investment Management in Pittsburgh. "Now you have the argument that this (market selloff) got ahead of itself too fast."
"You don't get opportunities like this every three, four, five years. These are 50-year opportunities," he says. "You need to continue to buy the cream. This stuff is still undervalued."
At the other end of the bull-bear spectrum comes this Bloomberg interview with Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, who talks about record levels of insider selling and the dearth of corporate buying.
Mr. Biderman notes:
I have no idea where the money is coming from to keep prices from plunging. All the hedge funds, mutual funds ... they have to be fully invested here from all the data we've seen. The shorts have covered ... we just don't see where the money is going to come from to keep stocks from plunging.At about the 1:50 mark he starts to say, "It's a phant..." but then, unfortunately, stops short of completing the sentence.
That would presumably have been "phantom rally", but, maybe he thought better of the idea of generating a headline like, "TrimTabs: 'Phantom' Rally to End, Stocks Set to Plunge".