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Shiller calls for second stimulus
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Yale economist Robert Shiller was on Bloomberg yesterday talking about the need for more action by the U.S. government to ward off a dreaded "double-dip" recession.
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2 comments:
If the guy things more "stimulus" is the solution, doesn't that really discredit his other information on home prices, etc? I wouldn't trust the guy at this point. I'd really be wondering if his home price index includes all relevant factors. For example, it's been mentioned here before that home prices could "fall" just based on smaller homes being built, or conversely, "rise" if all home sales were bank owned Mcmansions being foisted off for $1M each.
Okay, foreign savers will no longer loan to the US private sector (without GSE guarantees), so now Keynesians want the public sector to go deeply into debt to compensate for too much overseas savings. This is not a strategy that is sustainable in the long run either. It will have adverse consequences just like forcing private debt to GDP up to unstable levels.
I don't know about the new housing etf. They depend upon taking money from the downside fund to give to the upside fund if prices go up. There is no mechanism to make sure that the down side fund is large enough to fund the upside fund's gains, or vice versa. Momentum in one direction usually results in people flocking mostly to one side of the trade.
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