Gambler Nation
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
In a recent trip to visit relatives in Pennsylvania, the following conversation was overheard as family and friends were catching up on how their children were faring in life. "Our oldest son was in an accident a while back - he's recovering, but slowly", she said.
Then she paused, rolled her eyes, and continued, "And our youngest quit his job and gambles full-time now - on his computer. He says he's able to support his wife and their newborn, but it's only been a couple months."
Talking about their offspring is something that aging parents are wont to do - sometimes not so much to share or inform, but just to have something to discuss. There is much to be learned by paying close attention to conversations like this - sometimes the body language speaks louder than the words.
It seems that the older generation has much to say about what the younger generation is doing these days, but often times they are not heard.
Things haven't always been the way they are today.
One thing that has been pretty much the same over the years is the purchase of Christmas gifts around this time of year. What's popular this year? By the looks of what's for sale in local stores and at Costco Online, poker sets seem to be a hot item. Look at all the neat gambling accessories you can get:
It's a pretty safe bet that very few retired adults are buying items on this list for the parents of their newborn grandchildren.
These items do, however, seem to find their way into the living rooms and basements of baby boomers - in many cases baby boomers with teenagers. Gambling has sky-rocketed in recent years among the nation's youth - many parents apparently feel it's better to have their children gambling at home than roaming the streets, as evidenced by this PBS NewsHour segment:LEE HOCHBERG: A dozen teenage boys in the Seattle-area town of Snohomish gather after school and on weekends, sometimes twice a day, and the poker bets and the money fly. They said the purse could reach $150 before long. Seventeen-year-old Seth Follis said he's walked away from poker games with twice that in his pocket.
Gambling just seems to be part of the culture now - European teenagers drink wine at the family's dinner table, American teenagers gamble at the family's poker table.
TEEN: In a night, I've lost 50 bucks. But then the next day I won close to $300, so...
LEE HOCHBERG: So you're a net winner.
TEEN: Yeah. Since the beginning of last summer, I've won, like, $700.
Then there is real estate - everyone needs a place to set up that new poker table. The real estate gamble has paid off handsomely for many Americans in recent years, though many of its participants don't see it as a gamble at all. The risk-free interpretation of real estate investing often includes the logic, "Real estate is only going to go up. People are always going to need a place to live".
Thanks to easy home equity extraction, many millions of people now have easy access to many millions of dollars that can be wagered on investment property and second homes. There seems to be little desire to build home equity in a first home when investing the equity can be so much more exciting and rewarding.
As David Lereah, chief economist of the National Associate of Realtors once said, "If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years. It's as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress." He called it "very unsophisticated."
Paying off your mortgage is apparently for old people - unsophisticated old people.
At a seminar some time ago, the Citibank home loan specialist commented that this sort of "mattress money" was in fact "dead money" - just sitting there, doing nothing. He argued that it should be put to work - investment real estate was his recommendation.
Today, some people combine card playing with real estate careers until one of the two emerges as the clear winner - professional gambler or real estate tycoon. In this case, a big win tipped the scales:Aaron Kanter in Elk Grove, Calif., parlayed a $50 buy-in at PartyPoker.com into $2 million this summer when, by playing on the website, he won his way into the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas and took fourth place in that event, the richest casino tournament.
A necessary prerequisite for playing poker and investing in real estate is easy access to credit (Aaron's case above is the exception to the rule). Access to credit is one thing that has been a constant in recent years - something that senior citizens knew little about when they were young adults.
At home, Kanter, who recently ditched a real estate career to play poker full time, competes in as many as four games at once on his 23-inch computer monitor. "Any more than that, it's hard to pay attention," he said.
Many years ago, the only reason people needed credit was to start a business or if they were in trouble. Borrowing against the family home was done only to help pay for medical expenses due to some tragic accident or illness, or as a last ditch attempt to save the family business.
Today, credit is too easy. Too routine.
From credit cards funding Party Poker accounts and Las Vegas cash advances, to all-too-easy home loans - the amount of credit available and the ease with which debt is acquired surely must surprise the older crowd. "I don’t' know how they do it", they say, "Where do they get the money?"
Nothing exemplifies this credit-debt-gambling connection better than seeing house-rich Californians spending their home equity in Las Vegas or at Indian casinos that seem to grow like weeds around the country. At the craps tables or in line for pre-construction condo sales, they are ready and willing.
Ready, because they are now wealthy beyond what they or their parents could have ever imagined just five years ago, willing because this sort of thing is now accepted behavior - everyone is doing it.
Craps, condos - this is the way the world now works. You've got to play to win.
To really appreciate how much the world has changed in the last twenty years, you must go to Las Vegas - to see the new casinos and the new condominiums. The scale of things is breathtaking. The amount of money people have to spend is daunting.
While the younger generation crowds around the craps table, the older folks contently sit in front of the quarter slot machines, avoiding the condo sales offices completely.
Casinos and condos and generational changes in attitudes toward credit, debt, and risk.
What will Las Vegas look like in another twenty years? Who knows?
Today it is just another part of our gambler nation.
12 comments:
You make it sound as though gambling became prevalent only recently, but then how do you explain the existence of "Gamblers Anonymous" for generations? Or the frequency with which gamblers who ruin life for those around them feature in popular culture?
Easy credit leads to riskier behavior, sure, but that's always been the case. I'm not buying that our grandparents are this fountain of financial wisdom. They had market manias of their own.
I think you left out a very important point: As what's in a bubble changes, so does gambling behavior.
The people who, today, are gambling at the casino websites or on real estate at condoflip.com are probably the same people who used to day-trade prior to the tech crash. That comment about the guy who gave up real estate brokerage to take up gambling full time is reminiscent of all the news articles at the height of the tech boom about people who gave up their day jobs to gamble on stock trading over the internet.
Of course, I'm not sure which profession is less reputable: real estate broker/agent or professional gambler. Anyone want to wager odds on that?
That's easy. The real estate agent. No professional gambler has ever tried to convince me to buy a $300,000 house that clearly didn't meet my needs just to get a cut of a 6% commission.
Rich, I agree, there is a strong connection to inflation. In fact, inflationary times are times of decline of what now almost sounds quaint: "personal virtue". In Weimar, prostitution flourished, and even middle class girls were drawn into it.
In Austrian terms, inflation, by its very nature, redistriutes wealth, almost always away from the middle and lower classes. It is a particularly cruel form of regressive taxation.
The resulting feeling of mass angst it them exploited by populists and socialists of all kinds, selling their "cures", which are often worse than the disease itself.
Today, the middle class is squeezed, with rampant inflation. Tim has documented how real estate and health-care costs are badly undercounted, and if inflation were measured the same way it was in early 80's, we would be at a 7% inflation at the very least, and the reported GDP "growth" of 3% would come down to zero.
Gambling (in real estate or at the poker table) is just another symptom of the inflationary malaise.
If inflation is running at 7%, why isn't the bond market responding by demanding higher interest rates as compensation?
My wife brought home a flyer from the local chase bank this weekend. I still can't believe it, but they were advertising the new "no document" mortgage. This is a mortgage, where you don't have to prove any ability to repay. You don't have to show that you have a job, a bank account, nothing. The limit for this type of mortgage? $1 million!!!
How crazy is that? This isn't some fly-by-night mortgage company, it is Chase bank, FDIC insured.
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Anon 11:19
The bond market is now basically broken.
The supply of 10 year notes has been restricted in recent years, while foreign central banks and hedge funds continue to buy long term U.S. debt regardless of the yield - the alternative (rising 10 year yields, rising mortgage rates, and an abrupt end to the housing bubble) is too ghastly for to contemplate and no one has a vested interest in seeing the housing market collapse, except for renters.
It will go on like this until a crisis occurs, then things will change.
>>If inflation is running at 7%, why isn't the bond market responding by demanding higher interest rates as compensation?<<
It depends on who is bidding.
Keep in mind that foreigners buying US bonds are not exposed to the most inflationary parts of the US economy. They don't have to buy a US house to live in, or participate in the US higher education or health care systems.
Many business organizations worldwide have been in a deflationary environment as labor, information and technology input prices have been coming down. Of course some of that is changing, especially with regard to energy prices.
A recent keyword search for "consultant" showed that of the 147,085 searches, 31,800 were for casino consultant. Speeaks volumes.
I sold my house last year after losing my job. Just finished a health administration masters and have just started a new career at 50. Paid off my debt, taxes and am left with $50K.
So as a renter now, you bet I pray for a bursting of the real estate bubble everyday. (Sorry, but like all of you, I am out for myself).
It will happen and I say it will be late 2007 or 2007. With 30% "strange" real estate loans and the fact that the average wage worker has not seen a real increase in their salary, I don't see how Joe average can keep buying $800K houses here in L.A. on combined inomes of $120K. Defend this madness all you want, but something smells strange.
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