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Five Hundred Dollar Gold
Monday, November 28, 2005
Who knows what's going to happen now? Having been knocked down hard early in New York trading, then two more times during the day after steady, plodding rallies, gold has finally breached the $500 mark in Sydney and Hong Kong - $501.80 as this is written.
The end of the current cycle, or just getting warmed up?
8 comments:
that's awesome.
So what
Buy gold in 1980.
It hit $500 $600? whatever
Inflation then-to-now? %140%
Write again when gold hits $1,500
> Write again when gold hits $1,500
OK, I will - hopefully we all still have Internet connectivity at that point :-)
I'm personally betting that $1500 (and higher) is neither far-fetched, nor too far out in the future. The US dollar is already toast. Now it's just a question of waiting for the general populace to recognize that fact - or waiting for a single "fat-tail event" to take out the financial system. Systemic risks look incredibly high, by any number of measures.
I can see where you're coming from, though. Gold is just about waking up from a 20+ year bear market. People are understandably skeptical.
For those interested, Jim Sinclair posts some of the best commentary and analysis on gold at www.jsmineset.com. And, it's even free.
The dollar is already cooked but people just don't know it yet. Reread Faber's recent article for why the central prankster counterfeiters must inflate: far, far too much debt. If they are successful, inflation grows faster than debt with gold (and silver) rising steadily in value. If things get out of control, we will experience a hyperinflation (i.e. a currency crisis or loss of confidence in the government's ability to back their money). I think the latter possibility should not be dismissed as Bernanke seems to actually believes you can get something for nothing.
A stock broker told me at the top of the tech boom that "no one wants gold" when I asked if he thought it was a good buy at $250. Thank GOD I knew he was a MORON, just like the real estate pushers! Hey, I know! Lets all buy the same junk at the same time and ignore real value!
> I asked if he thought it was a good buy at $250.
Hope you didn't heed the idiot's advice, and took advantage of those ridiculous prices.
I just checked my records. I seem to have missed the absolute bottom at $252. I did pick up a bundle at $282/oz though (includes a $10 premium over spot for 1-oz coins, standard around here). And lots more in the low $300's.
For those who own little or no bullion, it's certainly not too late to buy. $500 should look absurdly cheap a few years from now. Given the price volatility, it would make sense to spread one's purchases over several months, or even years.
Didn't heed the IDIOTs advice. I'm gunna call him today to rub his face in it. While I'm there I think I'll dump his crappy mutual fund and buy raw materials for my company. There is a sure thing! While I lost 50% of my value, he bought a chalet in Idaho. He dont think it! He knows I'm a f'in MORON!!!! He's spending my money!
Buy silver, no one is looking at it and its nearly as pretty! Hey! You get to hold it. Thats better than giving your hard earned to a f'in trout fisherman in Idaho wearing a suit.
I'd also caution people interested in the metals to take actual delivery - bury the stuff, get a safe deposit box, etc. Don't settle for paper promises - that includes ETF's in my opinion. I have a feeling a lot of the paper-based derivative stuff - futures etc - are going to blow up when prices spike upwards. You don't want to be the guy who made the right bet, but got left holding the bag because the other side can't/won't deliver. Should that happen, chances are the regulatory authorities can't do much for you.
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