Friday Lite
Friday, January 27, 2006
With the week almost done, bracing for a weekend of retrospectives and next week's perhaps tumultuous conclusion of Alan Greenspan's long career as head of the world's most important central bank, there are but a few unrelated items to share today.
GDP Disappoints
The advance report on fourth quarter GDP really stunk up the place this morning. That's not going to make things any easier for Ben Bernanke who will begin next Wednesday morning filling out new-hire forms, selecting health care and retirement options, after sitting through the 45 minute video about safety hazards and sexual discrimination in the workplace.
As if there wasn't already enough foreboding historical precedent for the transition from one Fed chief to another, an extremely disappointing economic growth report coming out a few days before you take over at the central bank, well, that's just not fair.
The advance fourth quarter GDP came in at 1.1 percent - that's far below the consensus estimate of 2.8 percent and the lowest quarterly growth rate since 2001.
If you figure that inflation is understated just a wee bit, those are recessionary growth figures, and of course, it doesn't help that price pressures continue - good luck Ben.
A True Work of Art
Erin Crowe paints lots of pictures of Alan Greenspan as discussed in this story that will likely have rolled off of the front page of Yahoo! News by the time you read this.
This fascination with Alan Greenspan appears unhealthy and Ms. Crowe really should try to expand her choice of subjects a bit - too much focus on one man surely can't be a good thing.
What's In a Name?
On a completely unrelated subject, many readers have asked whether or not the name of this blog will be changing anytime soon. That is, with the retirement of Alan Greenspan next week, is it now time to retire the name, The Mess That Greenspan Made?
This name was never envisioned as a something that would last for many years, however, the timing seemed right when this blog was conceived nearly a year ago.
Today, readers are asked for their opinion - if and why, or why not.
For those favoring a change, suggestions are encouraged, however, comments containing proposed names that include personal attacks on this blog or its author will be immediately deleted - unless of course they are funny.
Why is Plastic So Strong?
Is it me or is plastic packaging about ten times as strong as it needs to be? It seems that not so long ago, a thin layer of plastic surrounding a product (e.g., a case of 24 one pint plastic bottles of water) could be easily penetrated with a sharp poke of a finger.
Once compromised, the plastic could be quickly removed.
Today, it seems that this approach would sooner land you in an emergency room than quench your thirst. In this consumer household, the utility knife is now reached for almost automatically in cases such as this.
Why is plastic so strong and are people injuring themselves in trying to remove it?
Should We Fear China?
This is what the main page of ChinaDaily looked like yesterday. There have been lots of recent stories about the Chinese military build-up, and joint exercises with the Russian military have raised some eyebrows, so at first glance the main page looked kind of threatening.
Alongside news of agreeing with Russia on a proposal about Iran's nuclear ambitions, and talks scheduled with Japan (all of which seems to leave the good 'ol U.S. out in the cold) is the image of a Chinese soldier.
A Chinese soldier striking fear in the heart of readers around the world.
Or, is it?
If you clicked on the photo, a larger image would appear as shown below. With more detail available, it is clear that this soldier not only wields a cross-bow, but has a quiver full of arrows.
Is this still scary?
21 comments:
OK, iron, I got rid of the part about the cute yellow fins, and I'll defer to your judgement, as I know next to nothing about this sort of thing.
I take them seriously too, I just couldn't help thinking of this image as the modern day equivalent of American Indians fighting against the mighty U.S. Cavalry.
Well, given that Greenspan essentially created the problem, I think you should keep the name. And think of your growing "brand" presence on the web - how would anyone find you? ;)
What you've got to love about the picture is that the crossbow is an American company's product (Horton) manufactured in China for export to the US... you can buy one at Wal-Mart for $423.22. Crossbow or no... I would certainly take the Chinese military seriously.
As for the plastic wrap... I've been wondering why we haven't had a class-action lawsuit involving injuries with this stuff. It is deadly, but apparently necessary to protect all those small electronic devices from salt-air corrosion while making the trip to America from Asia.
I hate the stuff.
Keep the name of the blog, but an alternative could be "The Mess That We've All Made".
The 100yrd battle crossbow vs hand gernade
Ah, yes another Walmart negative comes to light. They exported the technical knowhow to China where the US bow is made. In exchange for a negative balance of payments and loss of intellectual property the Chicomms run the factory for an extra shift and equip their troops at the marginal production cost of each crossbow.
Anyway, how about?: "DaMessDaFedMade" (pronounced damn-da-fed)
when Greenie bites the big one, you should change it out of respect, but until then keep it
Well, the blog title is kind of a statement of fact. And I don't see how the fact changes just because of the exit of an actor. When Johnny makes a mess in the kitchen, leaves and Jimmy comes in, it's not that Jimmy made the mess ... hey wait a minute ...
The name is perfect..he created this mess we will all have to live with and deal with. so why change it
Regular reader here: I say keep the name. It's Greenspan's mess, even if Bernanke has to mop it up. If you do change it, I vote for "The Mess That Bernanke Inherited."
TheMessThatBernankeWillMake
Helicopter Money
I love the name. But, only the most naive can believe this is due to Greenspan, the man. That is like blaming the Holocaust on Hitler. Still, you need to take down the icon first to see what is underneath. Consider who are the beneficiaries of the Mess.
themessthatthemessthatgreenspanmademade.blogspot.com (I just had to)
How about bernankestrillions (a play on Brewster's Millions)
(OK, seriously, don't change it. When the feces hit the scramjet, it'll pay off handsomely)
L'emmerdeur - another great name. Shall we translate that as shitdisturber? Bon weekend a tous.
It's great to see friends like mtnrunner2 and robert_cote over here!
The GDP thing really shocked me. I could tell that things were going downhill, but 1.1%? Boy that sure hit the markets like a train hitting a brick wall.
Even the more troubling statistic is that housing GDP growth are projected to be adding 1.6-2.5% of GDP at this point. If we assume low (1.6%), remove the housing market that's going bust anyway, and we're looking at -0.5% economic growth. Considering that is Oct-Dec, one can reasonably expect that the poor numbers will drag 1Q growth from a project 5% to as low as 2%. Remove the housing stimulus again and we're in recession.
This also doesn't take into account the fact that the population is growing at 1-2% per year and productivity has been > 2.5%. I have no doubts the number will be adjusted upwards, but even 2.0% is piss poor.
I think this guy stole your idea
The Mess Greenspan Leaves
http://www.mises.org/story/1985
bush's foreign policy ripples and creates otherwise unforeseen changes within many countries - the role of the superpower has become reversed, and resembles bush's 'axis of evil' tag-line created to invoke cold war paranoia and fear....
china, japan, and russia will create a very powerful trinity that will exude strength, power, and the lacking wisdom suffered by current governmental policies.
keep the name the same tim to your excellent blog - the legacy of alan greenspan will ripple far and wide into the economic changes and climates rapidly approaching this culture. his legacy will represents the same legacy that bush junior's reign will reflect:
a destablising current that will create new alliances, and further changes to the landscape of europe, asia, and the middle east (..can anyone say - euroasia...?) -
then again, should any of this come as any surprise when the erosion of the wall separating church and state was implemented under ronald reagan, and gained momentum during the hillary and bill years ..? meanwhile, the games are being played and the statistics are being jimmy-rigged to conceal the fact that the economy of this country will shift in ways and manners that will stun many within the next two to three years. how long can the shell game continue...?
It will still be the mess that Greenspan made even if he's no longer around in an official capacity, right?
The GDP figure doesn't surprise me in light of estimates that consumer spending is 70% of the current growth of GDP. Let's consider my household: In the 4th quarter, we cut household spending by 25% (a layoff can do that). We cut gasoline consumption by 60%. Since the New Year, we've (fortunately) added two new jobs to the mix (one full, one part time), and our savings rate has gone from almost zero to 30% of gross. And our household spending has dropped even more. (Can't consume when you're working 15 hour days.) A survey I read Fri. suggests many households are doing the same. I expect the next quarter should show recession, even by the laughably optimistic numbers our government provides.
I think you should keep the name. When Greenspan leaves, it will acquire even more an air of veneration; instead of being based purely on current events, it will be harking back to something historical!
Please keep this name -- I truly believe that Alan Greenspan is responsible for the LARGEST CREDIT BUBBLE in the history of mankind ....
Thanks for all the comments everyone - I'm going to leave the name as it is, at least for a while.
The blog is overdue for a makeover, so there will be a few changes coming up, but the name will remain the same.
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