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Inconsistent and Anomalous
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Yesterday's advance GDP report of 1.1 percent growth was disappointing to many. The decline was attributed to a drop in automobile sales, lower government spending, and a larger trade deficit resulting largely from more imported oil following last summer's hurricanes.
There is a broad mix of sometimes confusing and contradictory opinion about what the report really means, as best captured by this Wall Street Journal story($) which has been excerpted over at The Big Picture.
At the Treasury Department, there is no such confusion:
11 comments:
As I told my 6 year old yesterday when listening to Marketplace on NPR. You know the economy is going in the crapper when you get "on one hand; on the other hand" evasive reports. That sort of thing doesn't happen when times are good.
jeez - look at all that propaganda - good growth, strong, doing well, strengthening, historically low levels, lowest in five years, good course, confident, optimistic, confident, strong, good strong growth, constinued strong, performing well
When analysts re-look this data in the months to come, it may become clear: this was the beginning of the indicators the set the recession in motion
I emailed a guy at the Reno Gazette Journal asking him to comment on the fact that we had 500 homes on the market in 10/04 and 3500 homes on the market in 10/05. It is obvious that the powers that be will do anything to keep the truth from people, to attempt to keep the housing bubble going, to attempt to attract the last sucker into this massive ponzi scheme orchestrated by the fed. No one wants to admit that Bush has failed. What happened to honest journalism?
If these guys were running a company and made statements like that to the market--statements that are so obviously untrue and so obviously aimed at manipulating investor confidence--they'd be sued for securities fraud.
since inflation is not calculated right, doesn't that mean that GDP growth was negative?
The individual data will ALWAYS include inconsistent and anomalous components. One quarter it will be Katrina, another a big airplane order, then housing "weakness."
The one thing that I don't get is that the doubling of housing prices was of no concern as inflationary since imputed rent equivalents barely budged but now with housing appearing to be collapsing the Fed is suddenly concerned that this is massively deflationary. Talk about consistency.
This is the interesting thing about the inflation/deflation debate; it all depends on the perspective of the observer. For the banking monopoly, the deflation that they are worried about would be a fall in the value of their assets(loans), while the inflation that concerns them most would be a rise in wages that would affect their main constituents(Corporations) ability to repay those loans.
The Govt would have everyone believe that infl/defl revolves soley around their doctored CPI #'s
as this affects the payments they make to SS recipients and Interest payments on the National debt.
While "Real World" economists understand that Infl/Defl actually revolves around the incr/decr of the money supply that the banking/govt cabal currently controls.
http://www.harvardmagazine.com/lib/06jf/pdf/0106-28.pdf
The GDP thing really shocked me. I could tell that things were going downhill, but 1.1%? Boy that sure hit the markets like a train hitting a brick wall.
Even the more troubling statistic is that housing GDP growth are projected to be adding 1.6-2.5% of GDP at this point. If we assume low (1.6%), remove the housing market that's going bust anyway, and we're looking at -0.5% economic growth. Considering that is Oct-Dec, one can reasonably expect that the poor numbers will drag 1Q growth from a project 5% to as low as 2%. Remove the housing stimulus again and we're in recession.
This also doesn't take into account the fact that the population is growing at 1-2% per year and productivity has been > 2.5%. I have no doubts the number will be adjusted upwards, but even 2.0% is piss poor.
Gee Whiz. Goooolly gee. What a coincidence...
Just days before the Gov't is preparing to auction off a rather large bag of debt (171 bil) we get an obviously lowballed GDP report
that should help put a bid under the US Treasury Mkt.
Wow, maybe there is a Sanity Clause!
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