Wikinvest Wire

Threes Across the Board

Monday, April 24, 2006

Last summer, when regular gasoline in this part of the country was about $2.70 a gallon, the first of its kind California SUV Fill Up Index was published at this blog. While the $2.80 and $2.90 marks came rather quickly, it has been over six months since the last update.


The three previous posts were here, here, and here, which ultimately led to some investigative reporting on the impact that high gas prices were having on vehicle sales.

A pledge was made early on to update the index with every ten cent rise in the price of gasoline, and after admittedly losing interest in recent months as prices dipped to a low of around $2.15, a recent surge to over $3 has necessitated dusting off the spreadsheet and plugging in the new figure to freshen up the rest of the data.

Not that $3 gas makes any difference to SUV owners in this part of the country.

Not that Ford Excursion drivers with stick figure representations of their seven member family (including two pets) on their rear window would compromise the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed for a nuisance such as making ends meet.

Why?

Because they're nearly all homeowners.

And, when you have hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity, easily accessible whenever you need it, an extra hundred dollars a month isn't going to change what you do.

In fact, should gas prices go to $4 or $5 a gallon, the best way to handle this annoying extra cost without changing your lifestyle would be to have one of those credit cards that are hooked up directly to your home equity line of credit.

That way, the extra fuel cost just gets tacked onto your mortgage balance.

Taking this approach one step further, if you have the monthly interest payment on the home equity line of credit automatically charged to your credit card which then automatically accesses the line of credit once a month, that would be the best of all possible solutions for sustaining the unsustainable.

So, $3 a gallon?

Not a big deal if you live in California, as long as you own a house. Here's what it looks like at the pump.


Two Toyotas over the $75 mark - that looks strange. And the Hummer H2, how might they be selling these days?

Clearly the solution is smaller gas tanks, or as many SUV owners have discovered, to fill up more frequently - to never let the tank get much below half full so as to lessen the shock. Either that or the credit card - home equity deal described above.

In the very first edition of this index last year the following comment was made regarding the price of oil, peak oil, and monetary policy. It is worth repeating as many may wonder what the cost of filling up an SUV has to do with the name of this blog:

One of the most intriguing aspects of peak oil and its impact on oil and gasoline prices is the role of China and the U.S. Federal Reserve. It is clear that the monetary stimulus applied by the Fed since 2001 has had a large role in the economic boom in China and has resulted in a dramatic increase in oil consumption in that part of the world.

This increased demand is, to some degree, driving today's oil price. Whenever peak oil does occur, it surely will be sooner than it otherwise would have been had U.S. monetary policy not so stimulated these economies half way around the world.

Did the Greenspan Fed cause $65 oil? No, but they sure haven't helped to keep the price down.
Food for thought.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't think one can really peg "extra demand" from China on the US/China imbalance.

A key feature of this imbalance is that yuan are undervalued relative to dollars, so that makes it extra-difficult for the Chinese to import dollar-denominate things... things like oil.

In fact, I would guess it is more likely that if the yuan is allowed to float, Chinese demand for oil will explode, since oil will become much cheaper for them.

Yet another reason it is amusing to see politicians calling for rebalancing; I don't think they quite know the political backlash that awaits (I still think it is the right course of action, however).

Anonymous said...

Where is the Toyota RAV4 on the SUV Fill Up Index?

After all:
* Even though, compared to the H1 and the Expedition, it's just a little guy, it's an SUV too, just like the big guys, and has every right to be counted as part of the SUV fraternity.
* It only gets 17 miles in the city and 24 miles highway, which, while not as bad as the others, is still pretty lousy gas mileage, all things considered.
* Granted, it only takes regular unleaded, and it doesn't cost $159 to fill up, but paying $33 to fill an 11 gallon gas tank is still a lot of money for those of us on a tight budget.
* As a RAV4 owner, I feel excluded.
It is only fair to give the little guys a break, too, and include the RAV4 in your index, too.

Anonymous said...

aaron,

China heavily subsidizes their gas (as does Russia), so floating the yuan would mean the Chinese government lost a little money instead of a lot of money on a barrel of oil. Demand would not really be impacted unless the Chinese government lowered their already subsidized price of gasoline.

Anonymous said...

More work for Tim - perhaps.

As a cousin who just bought a Prius informed me - the real issue is cruising range per tank. He expects gas lines and Long Waits this summer.

Once you have miles per tank you could easily add $/mile to your table.

Anonymous said...

Gas guzzlers still popular:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060424/us_nm/autos_gasguzzlers_dc_1;_ylt=AuMCr1748PpDzIY5ZjEikUvlyREB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Anonymous said...

My car gets 13mpg and takes premium. I have a 20 mile round trip commute. Even if gas doubled or tripled, I still come out ahead vs. depreciation on a newer vehicle.

BTW, great blog. I get the sense that most people in this country know something is very wrong but are not sufficiently compelled to action. We have shifted from complacency to apathy. Next will be denial.

David said...

"My car gets 13mpg and takes premium. I have a 20 mile round trip commute. Even if gas doubled or tripled, I still come out ahead vs. depreciation on a newer vehicle."

What about insurance and maintenance costs. The more the car is worth the higher the inuranse.

Anonymous said...

The Greenspan Fed made it so easy to extract equity from the home, but did nothing to help extract oil from the ground. IMO, the current price of oil is a result of this imbalance and the Fed will not escape blame for very long.

Mark said...

Hey anon...

My truck gets 16 mpg and I drive it only when necessary.

Otherwise I ride a 30 yr old motorbike that I paid less than a grand for, and which gets 40 mpg. I commute about 13K miles/year.

So do ya think I should buy 800 gallons of diesel fuel or 320 gallons of regular gas this year?

Anonymous said...

I don't watch the news too much, but saw a piece here in Denver that people are rushing to pawn shops to make ends meet with the higher prices of gas. Why bother refinancing your home to get gas when you can sell the dusty bike sitting in the garage to fill up your tank? That piece made me laugh.

Anonymous said...

Aaron:

Where there is an overwhelming trade deficit in the direction of China, and there is a large (and growing) American debt which is in Yuan, not US dollars, complaining about the "devalued" Yuan, is missing the point. The point is this:

Be careful what you wish for, as you might just get it.

A singificant jump in the value of the Yuan would radically increase the value of the loans financed to Americans by the Chinese.

An illuminating (and inflammatory) glimpse at the Chinese perspecitve/propaganda on the topic here: China has surpassed the productive capacity of the USA. Note, I am not saying that there is more than the merest sliver of reality in this article, but this is what the Chinese equivalent of the pro-government pundit has to say about things.

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