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Friday Lite
Friday, October 27, 2006
Back from Pennsylvania but barely functioning as a result of a cold acquired in what Californians would consider extreme weather (30s and 40s, not including the wind chill), today's fare will be brief.
A normal schedule is expected to resume next week.
Fall Colors
There's something about country roads, wooden fences, and fall colors that really makes you stop and think.
Click to enlarge
OK, enough thinking.
Advance Third Quarter GDP: 1.6 Percent
Wow, this was a real stinker - the consumer is unfazed but the housing component declined 17 percent. How long until the consumer is fazed? In many parts of the country, homeowners still have hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity to spend, unless of course you bought within the last year or so.
Don't look for this to slow down the stock market rally - all the money that's fleeing the real estate market has got to go somewhere.
New and Existing Home Sales
The existing home sales data on Wednesday was bad, but the report on new home sales released yesterday was abysmal. A year-over-year decline of 9.7 percent, not including builder incentives. As usual, Calculated Risk was all over it with lots of charts.
Is it odd that virtually no one in the mainstream financial media predicted anything like this? It seems that all the happy-talk was of a return to normal appreciation, "Everybody's going to have to get used to single digit appreciation again".
Well, it's single digits, but it's not appreciation.
ABC News had a two minute segment on the latest housing report and Babs Corcoran was heard to say, "The courageous soul who's willing to go out there now, and doesn't mind putting in a low bid, is a very smart buyer".
Oh dear, using adjectives like "courageous" to describe homebuyers?
Ride the Silver Bull, but Hang On!
Every time you start counting the profits in your silver investments, remember what happened in September (and May).
The price of silver sure seems to go down a lot faster than it goes up, but it is worth the extra Maalox expense - the poor man's gold is up 60 percent from year ago levels.
Underwater Uranium
Question: How many uranium mining companies should you own?
Answer: More than one.
When Cameco's (CCJ) Cigar Lake mine experienced a rockfall and was then flooded, it set back production by at least a year. Cameco shares plunged twelve percent on Monday when the news was released, making back about a third of that in the days that followed.
The Cigar Lake mine was expected to provide ten percent of the world's uranium production in the years ahead and while news of the accident may have been bad for the world's largest uranium miner, others in the business took it rather well.
Two other uranium mining companies in the model portfolio at Iacono Research were up 20 percent and 30 percent since the news broke.
The spot price for Uranium is holding steady at $56 - look for much higher prices ahead.
Stephen Colbert on Blogs
Here's the Daily Show segment on blogs by Stephen Colbert - thanks jmf!
Still no word back from Colbert headquarters about the guest appearance a few weeks back.
9 comments:
hello from germany,
i´m not sure if my mail with the links went through but i have something funny from "your" friend stephen colbert
it is a kind of tribute to bloggers. funny!
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/stephen-colbert-on-blogs-tribute-to.html
and to put one on top
Silly Job Interview - Monty Python
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/silly-job-interview-monty-python-just.html
have a nice weekend
My first YouTube post - cool.
hello again,
wunderbar :-)!
i have some problems with my outlook the last days and was not sure if the mail went out.
greenie was talking again yesterday
"Turning to the U.S. economy, he said it had gone through a very weak patch during the summer, due to an accelerating decline in housing construction and a slowing pace of inventory building. But the outlook was now "reasonably good."
"Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us," Greenspan said. "The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter." "
Ah, Pennsylvania. I'd never want to live any were else. Well except Deutschland. Love the fall, love the cold. Not that their's anything wrong with cali. But when I went to visit and sister, years back. Oh, the sunburn....Oh, the heat. In early June Its still cool in PA.
Ah, Pennsylvania. I'm originally fron N.E. Ohio
now in San Diego.
Only way they'll get me back to Ohio is in chains.
Sorry to hear about your cold Tim. One word Zinc.
On the U situation, it is nice wake up call for the complacent. The industry has yet to properly discount the impending supply squeeze. Very likely, there will be more delays getting new production on-line both at Cigar Lake and elsewhere. And at some point, the Russians will be curtailing their sales of downblended weapons stock. Maybe everyone should start dismantling weapons for fuel too. What a pleasant thought.
"Maybe Evenryone should start dismantling weapons for fuel, too. What a pleasant thought."
Indeed. And I hope that's the way it turns out; but I doubt it. All you have to do is take a trip down history lane to see that we don't hold hands and sing "kumbaya" when the resources get scarce. We go to war for them. I understand another group of U.S. ships had been dispatched to the Straits of Hormuz to join the seven already there.
Any bets on when Phase III of this operation (Afghanistan, Iraq, then Iran), goes live?
Oh, our 'brain' trust would love to get into Iran next. But, even Russia/China political considerations aside Iraq is a cake walk by comparison. Iran is almost 3X the population and fields some excellent Russian defense weaponry. Moreover, there is very little popular support right now. It won't happen. If it did, that would begin WWIII.
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